Russell D. Howard, Alicia Ellis, Sarah Shoer
Control over water, food, and supply chains is increasingly shaping how power operates in modern conflict with non-state armed groups. When these systems fail, recruitment rises; when they are controlled, they become tools of governance; and when they are deliberately disrupted, they can generate effects far beyond the point of impact. This framework shifts counterterrorism analysis from an actor-centric to a systems-centric approach.
Counterterrorism efforts have long been focused on tracking networks, targeting leadership, and disrupting ideology. While attention remains fixed on communications, financing, and battlefield activity, a more fundamental driver of instability is unfolding in plain sight. The next front line of conflict is less about hidden compounds or urban battlefields and more about the systems people rely on in everyday life: water, food, and the infrastructure that moves them. Where wells run dry, crops fail, or supply chains fracture, instability takes root well before violence becomes visible. Understanding future conflict requires looking past ideology and focusing instead on what populations depend on to survive.
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