WE NEED AN INDEPENDENT REVIEW OF DRONE STRIKES

Larry Lewis

May 6, 2015

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In May 2013, President Obama announced major changes to the U.S. drone war. Though previously United States leaders described drone strikes as “surgical” and causing little to no civilian casualties, the president announced a set of criteria that the government must meet before authorizing a strike during counterterrorism operations. Under the new policy, a strike is not made unless the government has:

Near certainty that the terrorist target is present; and Near certainty that non-combatants will not be injured or killed.

The U.S. government has not released data concerning these operations to validate that these criteria are being met. However, other organizations, such as the Bureau of Investigative Journalism and the New America Foundation, compile open source information to create estimates of strikes and casualties. The data suggest that while there have been improvements over time, operations still fall short of these goals.

The recent revelation of American and Italian hostages being killed in a signature strike by a drone in January 2015 renews concerns that the drone campaign is not living up to President Obama’s promises. Specifically, in that strike the exact identity of the target was unknown and persistent surveillance was unable to detect the presence of the hostages.

Vietnam, South Korea Ink New Pact

By Prashanth Parameswaran

May 06, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/vietnam-south-korea-ink-free-trade-pact/

On May 5, South Korea and Vietnam signed a bilateral free trade agreement. The FTA, which was officially inked by the country’s trade ministers in a ceremony held in Hanoi, puts the finishing touches on a pact which the two sides have been negotiating for years and is a further boost to their strategic partnership.

According to reported figures from South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, under the FTA, Vietnam will completely remove its import duties on 89.9 percent of all products from South Korea over a 15-year period following its implementation, while South Korea will do the same on 95.4 percent of all products imported from Vietnam.

The agreement is expected to significantly strengthen trade and investment ties between the two countries. South Korea is already Vietnam’s biggest investor, second official development assistance and tourism contributor, and third-largest trading partner after China and the United States. But in a statement, Vietnam’s trade minister Vu Huy Hoang said that the agreement could see Vietnam and South Korea’s annual trade more than double over the next five years from around $30 billion last year – the largest amount ever since the countries established diplomatic ties in 1992 – to $70 billion in 2020. Vietnam in particular has been looking to FTAs – including ones with the European Union, the Russia-led Customs Union, and of course the Trans-Pacific Partnership – as a way to boost its economic development. South Korea already has eight FTAs in effect according to its Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

South Korea's Forgotten Mobile Phone Giant

By Tae-jun Kang

May 06, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/south-koreas-forgotten-mobile-phone-giant/

Once a competitor to Samsung and LG, Pantech has fallen into obscurity in recent years. 

When people talk about Korean-made mobile phones they easily think of Samsung and LG, but not many will come up with the name “Pantech.”

Founded in 1991, Pantech used to be a strong competitor of Samsung and LG, making South Korea home to three big mobile phone makers. Since its establishment, Pantech expanded its business eagerly, acquiring another big name in the industry: SK Teletech. Pantech once was the second largest phone maker in South Korea after Samsung in terms of market share, with its popular products including the “Vega” series. However, excessive expansion became a financial burden for the phone maker, and Pantech ended up seeking a debt restructuring after it was damaged by the financial crisis in 2007.

Innovation helped Pantech made a breakthrough. Pantech was the first to adopt the Android operating system for smart phones in South Korea, and it adopted new technologies to impress customers (such as a finger scan system) ahead of other makers.

It finished its debt restructuring in 2011, but it was too late for Pantech to catch up to the other two big players, who had expanded their businesses to the global market. Pantech had to go through a debt restructuring again in 2013 after having about 800 employees on unpaid vacation. The company is currently seeking a new owner.

Another Troublesome Kyrgyz Gold Mine

By Catherine Putz

May 06, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/another-troublesome-kyrgyz-gold-mine/

Kumtor is not Kyrgyzstan’s only divisive gold mine. 

Monday, Kyrgyzstan’s State Geology and Mineral Resources Agency announced that it was awarding a tender to Vostok-Geoldobycha, a Russian company, to develop the Jerooy mine, the site of the country’s second-largest gold deposit after Kumtor. Jerooy, more than 3,000 meters above sea level and 60 km from Talas, is estimated to contain 97 tons of gold.

Kumtor has been no small headache, its productivity marred and delayed by corruption, two revolutions, repeated threats of nationalization, reports of torture, and lower reserves estimates. Most recently, the Kyrgyz government backed out of a joint venture with Canada’s Centerra Gold, leading also to the resignation of Kyrgyzstan’s prime minister.

Jerooy has also been a bit of a mess. A London-based company, Oxus Gold, held the license to develop Jerooy in 2005 when the Tulip Revolution swept the country’s first president, Askar Akayev, out of office. The revolution upset relations with Oxus Gold. In 2006, Oxus Gold said local Kyrgyz police forced their way into a warehouse owned by Oxus Gold and “ejected the residents and other Oxus staff at short notice.”

Visor Holding, a Kazakh company, says it paid for the settlement of Kyrgyzstan’s disputes with Oxus Gold when it was acquiring the license in 2008. In 2010, Visor Holding’s license was expropriated by the Kyrgyz government, which said the company — that had had a 60 percent stake in a joint venture with Kyrgyzaltyn to develop the mine — had failed to start production. In 2013, Visor Holding filed a request for arbitration with the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), seeking $400 million for what the company called “illegal expropriation” of their license.

Macau Gambles on More Casinos Amid Downturn

By Anthony Fensom

May 06, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/macau-gambles-on-more-casinos-amid-downturn/

Is the “Las Vegas of the Far East” taking too big a gamble? 

Macau is rolling the dice on building more casinos, even while its gaming-dependent economy shrinks.

Formerly one of the world’s fastest growing economies, Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 17 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, with GDP for calendar 2014 falling into negative territory amid Beijing’s anti-corruption crackdown.

Casino revenues dropped for the 11th straight month in April, down 39 percent to 19.2 billion patacas ($2.4 billion), with high rollers reportedly avoiding the only legalized gambling area in China for fear of being caught in the authorities’ net.

According to an April 24 Reuters report, seven people including government officials are currently being investigated for graft, with the most recent case concerning two transport bureau officials detained on suspicion of taking $2 million worth of bribes from car parking companies.

Other cases have involved the arrest of a chief prison officer and a crackdown on prostitution syndicates, including the high-profile detention of a nephew of former Macau “kingpin” Stanley Ho.

Macau’s anti-corruption boss Cheong Weng Chon has backed Beijing’s fight against crime, saying his Commission Against Corruption bureau would “exert the best efforts to prevent Macau from turning into a transit point or destination for illicit money outflows and corrupt officials fleeing the country.”

High rollers currently account for around 60 percent of total gambling revenues, down from 80 percent two years earlier, while the share prices of Hong Kong listed gaming stocks SJM and Wynn Macau have dived on lower earnings forecasts.

Can counter-terrorism lessons inform cyber ops?: The fight shapes structure

BY THOMAS E. RICKS

MAY 5, 2015

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In the early days of the fight against al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), those within the Special Operations community tasked specifically with counterterrorism missions spent countless personnel-hours gathering intelligence about al Qaeda. As an AQI member was identified or detained, we sought immediate answers. What was his position in al Qaeda? Who did he work for in AQI? Who reported to this person? Was he being groomed to move up the ranks? All of this information was used, quite literally, to build large command and control org-charts of the AQI structure — with the very top spots feeding back into Osama bin Laden and his key lieutenants (the CEO and his C-Suite, so to speak). Understand the organization’s structure, the thinking went, and we can design a plan to dismantle it — ideally from the top down. “Cut off the head of the snake,” went the thinking.

This, of course, proved to be a fruitless exercise. Not because the intelligence was flawed (we were, in fact, flooded with good information), but because we were trying to force al Qaeda to be something that it was not — a hierarchy. What it was, and remains today in manifestations like ISIS and al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, is a distributed network of likeminded radicals. Its structure is organic and ever adapting to the world around it. Efforts to give it a formal design approach the problem incorrectly.

A Crisis of Confidence for German Chancellor and Her Spy Agency

Der Spiegel

May 5, 2015

July 14, 2013 was an overcast day. The German chancellor was reclining in a red armchair across from two television hosts with the country’s primary public broadcaster. With Berlin’s Spree River flowing behind her, Angela Merkel gave her traditional summer television interview. The discussion focused in part on the unbridled drive of America’s NSA intelligence service to collect as much information as possible. Edward Snowden’s initial revelations had been published just one month earlier, but by the time of the interview, the chancellor had already dispatched her interior minister to Washington. Having taken action to confront the issue, Merkel was in high spirits.

Merkel’s interviewers wanted to know exactly what data had been targeted in Germany. Reports had been making the rounds, they reminded her, of “economic espionage.” Merkel sat quietly. “So, on that,” she said, “the German interior minister was clearly told that there is no industrial espionage against German companies.”

Only a few hundred meters away from the red armchair, though, more was known. In Merkel’s Chancellery, staff had long been aware that the information provided by the United States wasn’t true.

By 2010 at the latest, the Chancellery had received indications that the NSA had attempted to spy on European firms, including EADS, the European aerospace and defense company that is partly owned by German shareholders. They also knew that the Americans were seeking to join forces with Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), in their spying efforts. It would be astonishing if Merkel herself had not known about these occurrences long before she sat down for the interview. Indeed, she would look even worse had she not known.

Brace up

By Sachin Shridhar 

May 04 2015

http://www.mydigitalfc.com/knowledge/brace-630

Cyber security is a threat that India is taking lightly despite the fact that 26% of the world’s attacks originate here

The beauty of cyber crime is that on most occasions, unknowingly you are both a victim and a perpetrator of the crime. It is like a person infected with a highly contagious disease who is unaware of it and as he parties around, he spreads the contagion. Mindless usage of the net with no knowledge or regard for cyber security has made us the largest nation from where as large as 26 per cent of the world’s DDoS (distributed denial of services) attacks originate. The list prepared by Norton, a cyber solutions company, include the US (17 per cent), Singapore, Vietnam and China as other major culprits.

DDoS attacks disrupt websites by bombarding them with traffic from multiple sources, resulting in online service becoming unavailable for a period of time. The attack to spread, uses all infected machines and distribute it in geometric progression and cripple the target by bombardment of multifold and relentless traffic till the site collapses. This is not a lone example but the norm where most studies put India at the top of the heap for being the leading victim as also the leading perpetrator of cyber crimes of all kinds.

Computer malwares and viruses are least respectful of geographical boundaries and government hierarchies. We have a “computer emergency response team” (CERT), an apex body under the aegis of department to electronics and IT. However, it does not have any over-riding wherewithal or authority and is generally content at offering advisories. As a result, each civil and military department has been making scattered attempts with piecemeal budgets, limited access to talent and generally lukewarm efforts to train its IT teams and fortify its networks. We talk of the world witnessing a silent and covert cyber war. Now, wars need warriors whereas in our bureaucracy obsessed country, our response has been largely secretarial. Today, we have government bodies, task forces, core groups and so on, but no real hands on cyber experts who will roll up their sleeves and clean up the mess.

Are we surrendering the cyberwar?

By Robert C. Covington

May 4, 2015 

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I ran across a link sent via a Twitter user the other day, quoting NIST fellow Ron Ross as saying, "The interconnectivity of the Internet of Things (IoT) leaves public and private computer systems essentially indefensible, and no amount of security guidance can provide salvation." I confess that this comment set me off a bit, as it sounds like we are prematurely raising the white flag of surrender in the cyber war. 

It's not all positive, however: Security issues and problems with some existing products leave room for 

Even as far back as 2007, experts were warning that the security perimeter was dead, and focusing on data protection was the only approach that would work. An article in Dark Reading basically restated this, saying that "Perimeter security is no longer relevant to enterprises." 

Notwithstanding many in my profession, I am unwilling to give up quite so easily. History was my worst subject all through school, and yet I still remember the words of Sir Winston Churchill who said, "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." I believe there are still many optimists in the industry that are not ready to cede the perimeter. 

One of the aspects of information security this white flag approach overlooks is that while enterprise breaches usually dominate the headlines, smaller businesses statistically are the ones experiencing the bulk of the problems. Fortunately, their exposures are somewhat easier to address, and often involve "old fashioned" perimeter security. Their issue is that they often ignore the fundamentals. 

Fort Huachuca bids farewell to Morse code training

By Tanja Linton

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April 27, 2015

FORT HUACHUCA, Ariz. (April 27, 2015) -- It is the end of an era on Fort Huachuca. The last manual Morse code class began here, April 27. In the future, the course will be taught by the Air Force on Goodfellow Air Force Base, Texas.

National Morse Code Day is celebrated on what would have been its founder's 224th birthday. Samuel F. B. Morse dispatched the first telegraph message in Morse code, May 24, 1844. The message, "What Hath God Wrought?" was dispatched from the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., to Alfred Vail at a railroad station in Baltimore.

The military first used Morse code during the Crimean War. Both the Union and Confederate armies heavily relied on Morse code during the Civil War. President Abraham Lincoln utilized it to receive military intelligence, as well as command and control his generals in the field.

Even in the increasingly high-tech world, there is still a need for this old-school mode of communication, said David Germain, chief of Morse code training and sole remaining civilian Morse code instructor at the 304th Military Intelligence Battalion.

The Fraud of War

By Julia Harte

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U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan have stolen tens of millions through bribery, theft, and rigged contracts.

U.S. Army Specialist Stephanie Charboneau sat at the center of a complex trucking network in Forward Operating Base Fenty near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border that distributed daily tens of thousands of gallons of what troops called “liquid gold”: the refined petroleum that fueled the international coalition’s vehicles, planes, and generators.

A prominent sign in the base read: “The Army Won’t Go If The Fuel Don’t Flow.” But Charboneau, 31, a mother of two from Washington state, felt alienated after a supervisor’s harsh rebuke. Her work was a dreary routine of recording fuel deliveries in a computer and escorting trucks past a gate. But it was soon to take a dark turn into high-value crime.

Troops were selling the U.S. military’s fuel to Afghan locals on the side, and pocketing the proceeds.

She began an affair with a civilian, Jonathan Hightower, who worked for a Pentagon contractor that distributed fuel from Fenty, and one day in March 2010 he told her about “this thing going on” at other U.S. military bases around Afghanistan, she recalled in a recent telephone interview.

Troops were selling the U.S. military’s fuel to Afghan locals on the side, and pocketing the proceeds. When Hightower suggested they start doing the same, Charboneau said, she agreed.

The Mighty X-47B: Is It Really Time for Retirement?

James Holmes

May 6, 2015 

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The X-47B program has been a great success. Is it really time for the boneyard?

Methinks the U.S. Navy has contracted some weird allergy to fleet experimentation. Why else would service potentates retire a promising experimental aircraft like the X-47B unmanned combat air system demonstrator, or UCAS-D, in its infancy?

Experimentation, of course, is the process of testing some tactic, concept, or piece of kit against reality. Why go to the trouble and expense? Because it’s easy to dream up some gee-whiz idea or build newfangled hardware, hard to tell whether one’s brainchild will work in the real world—surroundings that often appear set against innovation. No auto maker orders a concept car into full-scale production before taking it out on the road to vet the new gadgetry. It’s a testbed for new, oftentimes radical ideas.

The same applies to the martial realm, except fielding new military systems is harder than building a late-model car by an order of magnitude. Reality is a perverse thing, ruled not just by the laws of physics and other nuisances but by opponents bent on stymieing one’s best efforts. Ergo, it’s important to start experimenting early when developing something unorthodox. As one expert on undersea warfareobserves, systems put into mass production “have a minimal probability of failure if they’ve survived rigorous experimentation throughout their development. Conversely, if we wait to experiment with systems until they’re almost ready for fleet introduction, the incentive to distort results to avoid system ‘failure’ can be high. We need to prevent that, and we do it by experimenting throughout a system’s development.”

No-Fly Zones: The Ultimate Guide

Clint Hinote

May 5, 2015 

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/no-fly-zones-the-ultimate-guide-12813?page=show

When conflict rears its ugly head around the world, there is usually a call for the United States to “do something.” One option that is frequently mentioned is the no-fly zone. The United States and its allies enjoy a significant advantage over most potential adversaries in the air. No-fly zones, therefore, are attractive due to the perceived lower cost and risk when compared to other options. Despite this, setting up a no-fly zone is anything but a “no brainer.” Depending on the circumstances, there may be steep costs and unseen risks. This short primer is intended to introduce readers to the way no-fly zones really work.

What is a No-Fly Zone?

A no-fly zone is airspace designated as “off limits” to flight-related activities. There needs to be an explicit policy concerning which actions that are prohibited in the zone, and this should be communicated clearly. In addition, there must be some form of punishment in response to violations. Typically, this involves friendly military aircraft intercepting violators and escorting them away, forcing them to land, or shooting them down.

Why Would We Establish a No-Fly Zone?

The 5 Greatest Superpowers of All Time

Akhilesh Pillalamarri

May 6, 2015 

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-5-greatest-superpowers-all-time-12815?page=show

Does America make the cut?

While the world has known many great empires, the list of superpowers is shorter. It is much harder for a state to become and maintain superpower status because that requires an overwhelming dominance over all its rivals. As with lists, there is no way to include everything that deserves a mention, and I have admittedly left out strong contenders like the Ottoman Empire, the Persian Empire, the Spanish Empire, the Arab Empire, the Mauryan Empire and the Tang Dynasty. Here are five of the greatest superpowers in history:

The Roman Empire—which reached the height of its power in the second century—was by far the dominant power in most of the ancient world. Though its power did not reach as far as India and China, the Roman Empire’s prowess was unquestioned in the Middle East and Europe. It covered almost all the major population centers and civilizations of antiquity, including Greece, Egypt, the Levant, Carthage, Anatolia and Italy. The population of the Roman Empire at its peak was about 60 million, dwarfing all its neighbors and comprising a large portion of the world’s population. The empire’s size meant that it did not need to trade much except to acquire luxury resources (silk, lapis, spices, incense and so on).

The empire was by far militarily dominant over its neighbors, with the partial exception of the only major organized state that bordered it—Persia, whose power was still nowhere equal to Rome’s. While Roman legions could and did ravage Persia’s heartlands, there was no chance that a Persian army could reach Rome. Rome’s legions were essentially undefeatable in pitched battles with its enemies. Rome ultimately fell not because of external threats, but due to continuous civil war, economic depredations and an over-reliance on mercenaries.

Mongol Empire

Congress discussing major changes in military retirement

By JEFF WILKINSON

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Congress is considering changing, for the first time in decades, the way service members get retirement pay.

Military retirement now carries an all-or-nothing pension plan that requires a minimum of 20 years of service. The new plan would cut those pensions to 40 percent of pay from 50 percent, and create a matched 401(k)-style plan open to all service members.

The new retirement rules would affect all troops enlisting after the new plan is put in place in October 2017, Military Times reported. Troops already in the ranks could opt into the new plan or stick with the current “cliff vesting” system, it said.

The current system has to change in light of budget cuts being made after 14 years of war, says Col. Bryan Hilferty of Sumter, who retired last August from U.S. Army Central, formerly Third Army.

“We have to modernize and economize the system,” said Hilferty, U.S. Army Central’s former director of communications. “This is one hack at it.”

Part of the goal of the proposal is to help attract and retain young cyberwarriors who might want to hone their high-tech skills in the military but do not plan to stay for 20 years.

It’s Time to Rethink 360 Degree Reviews [Guest Post]

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The Military Times recently published an article discussing the usefulness of the 360 degree reviews in assessing leaders. This study (which was not included in the article) concluded that 360 degree reviews “probably should not be used as a part of the formal military evaluation and promotion process.” It cited “a long list of legal, cultural and practical concerns…(and that) Stakeholders were overwhelmingly against using the tool for evaluation.”

Given the integration and widespread use of performance feedback tools, this topic is clearly relevant. This year the Defense Entrepreneurs Forum asked its followers and readers to offer their opinion.

Here is my take.

Nathan Wike is an officer in the U.S. Army, and an associate member of the Military Writer’s Guild. The opinions expressed are his alone, and do not reflect those of the U.S. Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

‘Monuments Men’ needed in Nepal

NACHIKET CHANCHANI

May 6, 2015

The April 25 earthquake in Kathmandu Valley in Nepal has not only killed more than 6,000 lives and injured more than 14,000 people but has also impacted severely the country’s most iconic edifices and UNESCO World Heritage Sites. We now know that centuries-old pagoda temples have crumbled, statues have been thrown off high pedestals, and watchtowers have been reduced to fragments. Even as volunteers dig through rubble to locate survivors, and officials continue to devote their energies to feeding and sheltering the injured, the fate of the unguarded architectural fragments remains uncertain. Despite the Nepal government’s pleas that people should refrain from stealing what is left of these structures, a few pieces are likely to be picked up by individuals aspiring to profit from their sale. What will happen to the vast majority of these fragments in the months to come? Will they remain unprotected and begin to disappear in the face of development pressures? Or will they be assiduously gathered and transported to godowns?

Robert Bevan, an architectural critic, recently wrote in The Art Newspaper, “If a group’s cultural identity is eradicated, this has a similar end result to eradicating that group physically; they cease to exist as a distinct cultural entity.” Yet, preserving settlements and edifices that have shaped and reflected a group’s cultural identity are not easy tasks. The efforts to reconstruct European cities that were bombed in World War II and to restore Buddhist enclaves that the Taliban destroyed in Afghanistan in 2001 have demonstrated that such projects pose enormous intellectual challenges, logistical demands, political complexities, and economic strain.

Pakistan Army charges India with whipping up terror

NATIONAL BUREAU

May 6, 2015 

Top Pakistan Army Commanders expressed serious concern at the alleged involvement by India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) in “whipping up” terrorism in Pakistan. The issue came up for discussion at the corps commanders conference headed by Army chief General Raheel Sharif in Rawalpindi on Tuesday.

“The conference also took a serious notice of RAW’s involvement in whipping up terrorism in Pakistan,” a statement by Inter-Services Public Relations said. The statement comes days after the arrest of two Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) workers in Karachi for allegedly inciting violence at the behest of RAW.

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Welcome to the new era of cohabitation

Cyril Almeida

May 6 2015 

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It is hard to know if what is playing out at any given moment is a redefining of the rules in favour of the boys or just the bumbling of the civilians

IT’S been a while and stuff's been going on, so time to check in on the state of civilian-military. It's not going very well for the civilians. But well into this new era of cohabitation— the boys won't take over, they won't let the civilians rule either — it's hard to know if what's playing out at any given moment is a redefining of the rules further in favour of the boys or just the bumbling of the civilians.

Take this business down in Karachi. Back in September 2013, when the operation was launched, there seemed to be a genuine civilian component. Nawaz owned it, Nisar prattled on about it and the IB showed off.

No one really thought Karachi was going to be a civilian-run affair, but the civilians were in the game, playing it and shaping it to some extent. Now, 18 months on, the N-League is wandering around outside the stadium, lost and pitiful.

Even when they do react or try to participate, it just exposes the N-League's irrelevance. Smarter players would have known that Altaf's harangue this week would elicit a fierce response from the army. Smarter players would have known a quick decision was needed: either stay out of it altogether or get in before the boys said something first.

The unsung Indian presence in the Great War

Zarar Khuhro

May 6 2015 

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When World War I broke out, the British army faced a manpower crisis. It was then decided to send troops from the British Indian army. These first landed in France on September 26, 1914

World War I ended with little by way of concessions for India. 75,000 men were killed.

THE 100th anniversary of the Gallipoli campaign provides an interesting opportunity to examine the impact of the world wars on the Indian independence movement, and to make a larger point about how any nation's history cannot be truly studied in isolation. 

One of the bloodiest campaigns of World War I, Gallipoli pitted Turkish forces led by Kemal Ataturk against Russia, Great Britain and France. The campaign gave Ottoman Turkey one of its only major victories in the war and one can draw a somewhat straight line from Gallipoli to the establishment of the Republic of Turkey eight years later and the end of the Ottoman caliphate. That latter event is just about the only time that World War I figures in our local historical narrative, in the form of the political debacle that was the Khilafat movement. 

The colours of timidity - India's silence on the American race riots

K.P. NAYAR

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The race riots in Baltimore took me back to Carmel-by-the-Sea, a stunningly beautiful California town of less than 4,000 people. The majority of this town's population was associated with the arts a century ago. Nowadays, during most of the year, especially in summer, tourists hugely outnumber local residents. An enterprising search in the style of similar American small cities can still locate watering holes patronized by locals in Carmel-by-the-Sea to the exclusion of shorts-and-T-shirts-clad, flip-flop-wearing seekers of sun and sand from far.

It is among elbow-lifters in such quaint establishments that I picked up stories about the town's one-time non-partisan mayor, Clint Eastwood, the actor and the rationale for Carmel's curious law banishing high-heeled shoes from footpaths. In the 1920s, the people of Carmel opted to preserve their town's uneven pavements rather than give in to ladies who wished to wear high heels to match their elegant dresses as they walked to its annual three-day celebration of Bach, the Carmel Shakespeare Festival or to the town's gourmet restaurants.

Not only this town, but all of the neighbouring Big Sur and the Monterey Peninsula - where Carmel nestles along with the impressionable Henry Miller Library in Nepenthe - is liberal. In 2003, as George W. Bush prepared to "shock and awe" Baghdad, I was greeted by a large banner as I drove up to the picture-postcard location of the Camaldoli Hermitage, a Benedictine monastery in Santa Lucia. The banner read: "Who Will Jesus Bomb?"

To Make in India, Look East

By Nilanjan Banik

May 05, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/to-make-in-india-look-east/

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched his Make in India campaign, it was to considerable fanfare. However, the idea has yet to really take off. The perception is that while the central government is trying to do its bit to make India a better place to do business, there are numerous issues that need to be solved at the local level. Doing business in India still requires the entrepreneur to be familiar with the morass of rules issued the central government, state governments, and municipalities.

Indian policymakers must therefore address the domestic constraints that diminish India’s trade competitiveness and that make it difficult to participate in global production networks. This is particularly relevant at a time when India’s trade figures are slowing (for fiscal 2015, exports are already down 1.2 percent, to $310.5 billion, in spite of rupee depreciating).

In this respect, India should learn from its Southeast Asian counterparts, a number of which have been to successfully implement Made in ASEAN. They have been able to do this by participating in the Southeast Asian production network. When a computer or cell phone is assembled, the constituent parts come from across the Southeast Asian region. Although the ASEAN community is diverse, and companies in many ASEAN countries compete fiercely and often lobby against their rivals, there are trading complementarities. Southeast Asia has been able to make good use of these complementarities.

India vs. China: A 21st Century Economic Battle Royal

Christopher Whalen

May 5, 2015 

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"Innumerable analysts have predicted that the twenty-first century will belong to China, yet it seems worth considering whether the current millennium will not belong at least equally to India."

Back in August of last year, TNI described why India’s economic prospects are brighter than those of China (“Beware, China: India's Economy Could Have an Even Brighter Future,”). That judgment seems to have been confirmed by subsequent events. As we noted at the time, "When all is said and done, the difference between India and China can be summed up in one word: freedom."

India is now clearly outperforming the other emerging nations, particularly China, a nation hobbled by a command economy and one of the most corrupt political systems on the planet. “As Brazil, Russia and China hit hurdles, it’s the poorest member of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s emerging-market group that’s proving a darling of global investors,” Bloomberg News reported in February. “The International Monetary Fund is predicting India will next year grow faster than each of its BRIC counterparts for the first time since 1999.”

In January of this year, we noted that Western hopes of an economic “rebalancing” by China, from state-directed investment to a demand pull economy based upon private consumer activity, was without basis (“The False Hope of Chinese Economic Rebalancing”). India, on the other hand, has not needed to stoke private demand because it already has a vibrant private-sector economy, albeit one that still struggles with bureaucracy and official corruption on a large scale. Yet even with all of India’s structural problems, the fact that its people are free to compete economically and express themselves politically puts them light years ahead of their counterparts in authoritarian China.

Nagaland: Rudderless Process, Aimless Violence

Giriraj Bhattacharjee

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Nagaland: Rudderless Process, Aimless Violence 

Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

As the violent incidents of last few months suggest, NSCN-K's decision to unilaterally call off the ceasefire, the split within its ranks, and the Union Government’s failure to make any progress with regard to talks with NSCN-IM, could lead to greater violence in Nagaland and neighboring northeastern states. SFs, who had enjoyed clear respite from terror, will, in particular, face the brunt of escalating violence, if these developments continue. Intelligence inputs predict a spike in hit-and-run attacks on SFs over the coming days, particularly by NSCN-K militants operating from across the Indo-Myanmar border.

SAIR Volume 13, No. 41, April 13, 2015 

Twin ambushes by Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) resulted in the death of eight Security Force (SF) personnel - seven of them from the ‘C’ company of 23 Assam Rifles (AR) and another from the 164 Naga Territorial Army (TA) Battalion – in the Mon District along the Indo-Myanmar border on May 3, 2015. Nine other troopers were injured in the ambushes.

Reports indicate that the first ambush occurred at around 14:45 hrs [IST] when the AR personnel in a truck were escorting a tanker to fetch water from Changlangshu to Tobu town. Three troopers died in the attack. On learning of the ambush, an AR reinforcement party, rushed to the spot, where NSCN-K cadres were lying in wait and launched the second ambush. Another five troopers were killed. The AR reinforcement party reportedly retaliated, killing one NSCN-K cadre, identified as Ngamwang Konyak, while another was injured and dragged away by the rebels. According to Nagaland Director General of Police L.L. Doungel, another four troopers are reported missing after the incident.

US To Offer India New Tactical Aircraft

By Franz-Stefan Gady

May 05, 2015

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U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter is expected to offer India a new U.S. made tactical aircraft for sale during his two day visit to the subcontinent in June 2015, IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly reported last week.

Additionally, Carter will sign a 10-year India-U.S. Defense Framework Agreement, which outlines concrete steps to bolster Indo-U.S. defense ties including the co-production of weapons in India. The U.S. defense secretary also plans to accelerate the Defense Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI) and review progress on defense technology transfers from the United States to India.

IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly notes:

Industry sources said that under the DTTI, which Carter initiated as deputy defence secretary in 2012, the US was expected to offer the Textron AirLand Scorpion light-attack and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft currently being developed to the Indian Air Force (IAF).

With a unit cost of less than $20 million the Scorpion has been dubbed the ”world’s most affordable tactical jet aircraft.” According to the developers one Scorpion flight hour only costs $3,000 in comparison to $25,000 for a F-16.

Can India and China Both Court Afghanistan?

By Harsh V. Pant

May 04, 2015

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While welcoming Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in India last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi underlined that “the relationship between India and Afghanistan is not just between two countries or governments. It is a timeless link of human hearts.” With that spirit Modi made it clear that India would support Afghanistan’s security forces and open the Attari check-post in Punjab to Afghan trucks in order to increase trade between the two countries. Modi stated: “India will walk shoulder to shoulder with you and the Afghan people in a mission of global importance.”

In addition to proclaiming India’s support for Afghanistan’s security forces, Modi announced that India is “prepared to join the successor agreement to Afghan-Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement” which will “re-establish one of the oldest trading routes of South Asia.” For his part, Ghani signaled his disappointment with Pakistan over its refusal to allow direct trade with India via the Wagah border, and suggested that if the deadlock continues Afghanistan “will not provide equal transit access to Central Asia [for Pakistani trucks].”

The Great Game Folio: Mukherjee in Russia

Written by C Raja Mohan

May 5, 2015

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President Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to Moscow to join the celebrations marking the 70th anniversary of the Allied victory in World War II is important for more than one reason. The president’s presence at the Victory Day celebrations in Russia on May 9 for the first time is in part about extending New Delhi’s solidarity with Moscow at a time when many Western leaders have decided not to show up in protest against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s policy in Ukraine. It is also about reclaiming India’s expansive but forgotten role in WWII. Mukherjee will not be the only Indian at the parade. A contingent of the Indian army’s Grenadiers Regiment will march with the troops of Russia down the Red Square. This is the first time that an Indian army unit is joining the commemorative ceremonies of WWII.

In 2009, France invited an Indian army unit to march down the Champs Elysees in Paris on Bastille Day. Paris was reminding the people of France and Europe of India’s massive participation in World War I. The Indian armed forces played a decisive role in winning the two World Wars, with more than a million troops seeing action. But national amnesia about India’s role in the two wars tended to diminish the subcontinent’s massive contributions to the shaping of the 20th century international order.

The presence of the Indian army and its commander in chief in Moscow this week reflects the long overdue change in Delhi’s attitude to the two World Wars.

Balochistan: Shooting the Messenger

Tushar Ranjan Mohanty

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Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

One more messenger of peace fell prey to Pakistan’s Mullah-military nexus in the night of April 24, 2015, when unidentified assailants shot dead Sabeen Mahmud, a prominent Pakistani women’s rights activist, in the Phase-II area of the Defence Housing Authority (DHA) in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh. According to reports, Sabeen, accompanied by her mother, was just returning home after organizing a discussion on ‘Unsilencing Balochistan’ at ‘The Second Floor’ (T2F), a café that had been developed as a forum for open debates, of which she was Director. The event, “Un-Silencing Balochistan (Take 2)” was organized after the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) cancelled the talk due to security threats allegedly from Pakistan’s intelligence agencies. The panelists in the discussion included ‘Mama’ Abdul Qadeer Baloch, the President of Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP), who had led a ‘long march’ to protest forcible disappearances in Balochistan; Baloch activists Farzana Baloch and Mir Muhammad Ali Talpur; and journalists Malik Siraj Akbar and Wusut Ullah Khan.

Sabeen sought ‘an open and honest debate’ on Baloch disappearances and, acknowledging that there were strong opinions on the issue, she urged a debate that was mutually respectful. She joked that, while LUMS had been forced to cancel its event, she had received no such warning about the talk at T2F, knowing little that she was crossing a critical red line by organizing an event highlighting the Baloch issues. Zohra Yusuf, Chairperson, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) observed after the killing, “It appears that an attempt is being made to silence human rights defenders or those who take up the causes of the people.”

Reducing Disaster Risk in the Himalayas

By Dhanasree Jayaram and Ramu C. M.

May 05, 2015

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Nepal is reeling under the effects of the worst earthquake in more than 80 years. Nepal’s Prime Minister Suhsil Koirala has warned that the death toll in the magnitude 7.8 earthquake, which struck an area between the capital Kathmandu and the city of Pokhara, could touch 10,000. Hopes of further rescues are fading, and the focus is now switching to relief. This major disaster has affected even Nepal’s neighbors – India, China, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan – with the death toll in India crossing 60 and that in China reaching 25.

The bigger worry at this point in time is that the aftershocks continue to jolt the Himalayan region. The magnitude 6.7 tremor on the following day created absolute alarm among the people of Nepal, forcing them to leave all the buildings and seek shelter in open spaces and tents as well as hampering rescue operations to a great extent. A vast majority of the old buildings (including heritage sites) have collapsed and many new ones have developed cracks. Avalanches triggered by the earthquake and the aftershocks on Mount Everest have taken at least 18 lives, including that of foreigners. Seismological data has revealed that Kathmandu could have moved about 10 feet southward. International aid from countries across the world, particularly India, has poured in to assist Nepal in this desperate situation.

Nepal’s Earthquake and International Aid

By Arjun Claire

May 05, 2015

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The swift international response in the aftermath of the earthquake in Nepal testifies to the spirit of global solidarity. Within hours of the earthquake striking this landlocked Himalayan nation on April 25, which along with a series of aftershocks has claimed more than 7,300 lives and injured thousands more, several countries had ferried in aid workers and relief supplies. They rushed in experts to assist in search and rescue operations and supply medicines, meals, blankets and tents.

The media narrative played out the devastating effects of the earthquake alongside the magnanimity of international donors. Report cards were soon published detailing the relief efforts of the most generous countries. Social media accounts of humanitarian organizations were abuzz with pictures of experts being dispatched to Nepal. Appeals for funds followed shortly thereafter.

In contrast, the Nepalese government came in for immediate scorn. Reports emerged of disgruntled Nepalese lamenting the government’s lethargic efforts to mobilize relief, while expressing gratitude for the international aid swarming the country. This frustration is clearly not without justification. The scale of the destruction caused by the earthquake is massive. More than eight million people have been severely affected and around one million are in need of urgent food assistance, according to the UN. And as reports emerge of the damage caused in remote regions, needs and tempers are only set to rise.

Saving Nepal: the information revolution

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Communities impacted by the 7.8 magnitude earthquake (and subsequent aftershocks) that struck Nepal on April 25th have a variety of needs, stemming from immediate protection of physical safety and security, access to life saving services, and basic subsistence (food, clean water, shelter) and psycho-social support in the aftermath of an extremely traumatic event. In the case of Nepal and the city of Kathmandu, recent reports suggest that the capital city’s critical infrastructure and services were not sufficiently resilient to protect against an earthquake, that the topography of the region is such that landslides remain a concern, and that socio-cultural factors like caste-based discrimination makes some communities more vulnerable than others.

The scope of the natural disaster

According to the April 30 Situation Report of the UN Office of Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), search and rescue and aid agencies responding to the crisis in the coming days are focused on providing shelter to the displaced--government reports suggest over 130,000 homes were destroyed and 85,000 partially damaged. In Kathmandu alone there are an estimated 24,000 internally displaced people (IDPs) registered in tented settlements, although many more are likely seeking refuge in informal settlements and in the rubble of partially damaged—and still vulnerable—homes. Identifying missing persons, and effectively and ethically managing dead bodies are still a major part of the response. Tents and food are among the highest prioritized areas of need (over 3 million are in need of food aid in the region), and health remains a primary concern as hospitals near the capital have reportedly run out of supplies.