US intelligence assessments project a more-than fivefold expansion of missile threats to the US homeland, to over 16,000 missiles by 2035 from 3,000. Adversaries are developing advanced long-range missiles and cheaper, expendable OWA UAVs to overwhelm US missile defenses. These projections, from President Donald Trump’s 2025 ‘Golden Dome’ initiative, include China’s ICBMs increasing from 400 to 700, and SLBMs from 72 to at least 132.
Boosted hypersonic weapons and land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) represent the largest growth areas. China’s boosted hypersonic inventory is forecast to grow from 600 to 4,000 by 2035, and LACMs from 1,000 to 5,000. Russia’s boosted hypersonic systems are projected to reach 1,000 from 200–300, and LACMs from 300–600 to 5,000 by 2035. The US Department of War plans to procure 10,000 low-cost containerised cruise missiles, 12,000 Blackbeard aero-ballistic missiles, and 4,300 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile ALCMs, while accelerating SM-3 interceptor production, indicating an emerging conventional arms race driven by insecurity and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
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