In Greek, “geo” means “earth” and “politika” means “affairs of the city.” The “earthly affairs of the city” is a more elegant definition of geopolitics than what the dictionary offers: “politics as influenced by geographic factors.” But neither of these definitions does much to explain what geopolitics is and how we use it at Geopolitical Futures. For us, geopolitics is a tool, a way of thinking about the relationship between what states can and cannot control. It is not focused on any one thing but on all things; not on any one moment but on all moments, past and future; above all, it is not judgmental. It is concerned with describing what is and leaves what should be to theologians and think tanks. Geopolitics is not something you can learn from books alone,
Geopolitics is more akin to common sense than to international relations theory. It requires you to understand why men die for their country as well as a country’s grand strategy. It requires that you know how much a loaf of bread costs at the grocery store as well as what kind of guidance system an ICBM needs to be effective. It requires that you see the world not as you would want it to be, but as it really is. Geopolitics is never disconnected from reality; it is reality at its grittiest.
Imperatives
So geopolitics is the study of human communities living in a defined space. To survive, a community must have access to some basic resources like food, water and shelter. The way these things are acquired varies. Some communities live in places where it is hard to grow food, so they develop other resources to trade with nearby communities in order to provide for their well-being, and so economics springs into being. The larger the community, the more resources it needs. But resources are finite and competition for them is fierce – and that means defense of a community’s resources and members must be ensured.These types of basic needs are what we call imperatives. Geography defines what these imperatives are for each country.
Constraints
Imperatives are what a country must do to survive. But not all countries survive, not all nations have their own countries (e.g., Scotland), and not all those that do are able to satisfy their imperatives (e.g., Japan in World War II). This is because there are limits to what a country can do. In the same way that a country’s geography defines its imperatives, it also defines its constraints. Russia, for instance, has an imperative to secure an area in Eastern Europe that buffers it from invasion. This is because Russia is located on the North European Plain, the invasion superhighway of Europe. The fall of the Soviet Union meant in practical terms that Russia lost control over its buffer zone. Russia’s imperative is to control this territory, but it’s an impossible task for Moscow. Russia’s military is incapable of conquering and holding Ukraine. Russia’s imperative is to change the status quo in Ukraine, but the imperative outstrips Russian capabilities. Russia is constrained. It cannot achieve its imperative.
CHINA
Consider the case of modern China. China has become an immensely powerful country. It is true that Xi is a powerful leader, one who is attempting to consolidate control over the country to prevent it from breaking apart. China’s most pressing issues is poverty and wealth disparity. The coast is wealthy and the interior is poor. Xi is caught between the masses of the interior who will revolt if wealth isn’t redistributed, and the wealthy power centers along the coast that are the source of China’s economic power. Xi is the most powerful man in China, but even he cannot solve China’s domestic issues. Or consider China’s position in the world. China has been modernizing its military at an impressive rate, but its capabilities are still fundamentally limited. China is hemmed in by various islands that allow an outside power with a strong navy to block China’s expansion. China’s navy has made great strides, but China is still not in the same weight class as the United States, and that affects China’s ability to project power in its own backyard, let alone beyond. For all of China’s strength, for instance, it has not been able to consider an amphibious assault on Taiwan. China also depends on its ability to extend its maritime boundaries because its economy has grown to its current size on the back of foreign trade. That means there are limits to how far China can push the United States, because if a real conflict between the two breaks out and the U.S. moves to block Chinese trade, it would exacerbate the domestic issues that make ruling China so difficult.
From the point of view of geopolitics, we have to understand :
Chinese geography, and the way it makes China a de facto island, to the benefit of the coast and the detriment of the interior.
Chinese people and how Chinese history oscillates between strong, centralized control and regionalized civil war.
China’s geography defines China’s imperatives, but also that it limits just how powerful China can become.
we have to be able to view all of this through the eyes of China’s leader, and recognize that in many ways he is an expression of China’s imperatives and constraints. He is as shaped by them as China is itself. When you put these pieces together, you begin to arrive at a geopolitical understanding of China, and therefore a sense of what China’s future must look like
Conclusion
Geopolitics explains and predicts how different groups of people interact. The nation-state is the basis upon which human communities are organized today. Nation-states have imperatives – things that must be done to survive. They have capabilities – resources to help ensure survival. They have constraints – realities that cannot be overcome that set limits on what is possible. Without those limits, prediction would be impossible – without constraints, there is no horizon.
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