A hypothetical scenario posits that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for nearly 90 days following a US-Israeli war on Iran, prompting consideration of the severe economic implications if this vital oil-and-gas sea route does not reopen. This "historical science fiction" thought experiment draws parallels to the 1967 Suez Canal closure, which, despite the Six-Day War ending quickly, kept the waterway shut for eight years, trapping 15 ships and rendering most unseaworthy, forming the "Yellow Fleet." The article explores the "nightmare" scenario of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing the potential for unprecedented disruptions to global energy markets and the significant impact on oil prices.
This analysis, while not the author's base case, underscores the long-term, unforeseen consequences of geopolitical conflicts on critical maritime chokepoints and their profound economic repercussions.
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