Indian Strategic Studies

10 April 2022

Condemning Russian War Crimes in Real Time Can Save Lives

Erica Gaston

Last week, United Nations human rights chief Michelle Bachelet warned that Russia may have committed war crimes in Ukraine, pointing to credible evidence that it had used cluster munitions in populated areas as well as other indiscriminate attacks. Her warning took on even more resonance over the weekend, when reports emerged of Russian forces having committed summary executions of civilian men in the Ukrainian town of Bucha.

Bachelet’s denunciation, combined with the outpouring of outrage over Bucha, is likely to renew enthusiasm for a future war crimes tribunal to hold Russia accountable. But apart from inspiring dreams of a far-off and for now unlikely formal criminal prosecution, the sort of documentation and public accountability Bachelet is engaging in has an even more important role to play in immediate conflict mitigation and, potentially, resolution.

A holistic approach to strengthening the semiconductor supply chain

Sarah Kreps, Richard Clark, and Adi Rao

The COVID-19 pandemic brought the consequences of offshoring semiconductors into sharp relief for American consumers and businesses. When the pandemic struck—snarling global supply chains and spiking demand for consumer electronics—American businesses and consumers were left without the inputs and supplies they had come to rely upon. This supply chain will remain at risk: Its core nodes remain in locations with high geopolitical uncertainty—none more important than Taiwan, whose semiconductor industry Beijing jealously eyes.

Russia's Ambassador to U.S. Reveals Why Ukraine War Began, How It Could End

TOM O'CONNOR

A month and a half into Russia's war in Ukraine, Moscow's envoy to Washington has outlined to Newsweek his country's reasoning for launching what it has deemed a "special military operation" against its neighbor, and detailed the demands that, if satisfied, could end the conflict involving Europe's two largest countries.

And as Kyiv (spelled Kiev by Russia) accused the Kremlin of conducting "war crimes" to the extent of "genocide," Russia's ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, argued it was Ukraine's alleged ethnic cleansing, along with its bid to join the U.S.-led NATO Western military alliance, that fueled the war.

The Ukraine conflict and the problems of conflict termination

Chris Tuck

Ukrainian and Russian officials are, at the time of writing, meeting in Turkey to seek a breakthrough that would lead to an end to the fighting in Ukraine. This is the latest in a succession of negotiations that so far has failed to lead to any decisive results. In many respects this should not be surprising. Wars are much easier to start than they are to stop. This might seem odd – one might assume that states begin wars as a result of a rational calculation on the costs and benefits of doing so; and when the costs turn out to exceed the benefits, it would be equally rational to halt the fighting as quickly as possible. For Ukraine, the war has wrought huge destruction and suffering. In the case of Vladimir Putin, it is clear that the war that he began in Ukraine has turned out to be significantly more costly than he assumed, and the anticipated gains elusive. An early end to the fighting would seem beneficial to both sides.

Real Estate Is China’s Biggest Economic Vulnerability

Victoria Herczegh

China’s real estate sector is one of its economy’s most important assets. Real estate has contributed considerably to China’s transition to a socialist market-based economy and its strong economic growth in recent decades. Now, however, what once propelled the Chinese economy forward threatens to hold it back. Structural economic problems are emerging, and real estate is among the first sectors to show signs of distress. Given its significance to the Chinese growth model, failure to address these issues would likely trigger a crash that would wreck the Chinese economy and disrupt the global economic system.

Who Will Intervene in the World’s Hot Spots?

As conflicts and crises persist around the world, there is growing uncertainty about how—or if—they will be resolved. The international order is fraying, generating uncertainty about who will intervene and how these interventions might be funded.

There are interminable conflicts, like the situations in Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan, which have produced years of violence, countless thousands of deaths and even more refugees. Then there are the emerging hot spots, including northern Mozambique and the China-India frontier, and any number of potential flashpoints, like the Eastern Mediterranean. Even in situations where there is some tenuous hope of reconciliation, there is also uncertainty—such as South Sudan, where a 2018 peace deal that put an end to years of civil war is for now holding, even as widespread violence continues to plague the country. And the Russian invasion of Ukraine has now brought high-intensity, interstate warfare to the heart of Europe for the first time since the end of World War II.

India, US to hold 2+2 dialogue in April

SARAKSHI RAI

The State Department announced Thursday that it will hold a strategic dialogue with top officials from India in Washington, D.C., next week.

The State Department said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will welcome India’s Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar and Indian Minister of Defense Rajnath Singh to Washington for the fourth U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue on April 11.

If New Looks could kill: Russia’s military capability in 2022

James Hackett

The New Look military modernisation process, that began in late 2008, has made Russia a far more capable military power today than at any time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. There were previous attempts to reform Russia’s armed forces, including in the 1980s and 1990s. But the lacklustre performance in the October 2008 war with Georgia, renewed political will and an upturn in finances combined to kick-start the New Look. The State Armament Programme 2011–20 proved particularly important in delivering re-equipment ambitions.

Putin’s Strategic Failure

Nigel Gould-Davies

War is the ultimate test of a society’s resources, leadership and will. It reveals what forms of power matter and which countries possess them. War’s consequences are legion and unforeseen and, in modern times, have above all surprised those who start it.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is teaching Russia these lessons anew. At the time of writing, barely three weeks in, it was already clear that his 24 February invasion of Ukraine was a grand strategic error. This war has unleashed forces that are weakening his country’s, and his own, position, on every political front.

India’s Pralay ballistic missile: a step towards a rocket force?

Antoine Levesques

On 22 and 23 December 2021, India tested a new surface-to-surface short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) design, the Pralay. Antoine Levesques argues that the test marks an important step in India’s ambitions to develop more credible missile forces. But it could detrimentally lead Chinese and Pakistani decision makers to conclude India intends for Pralay to be more ‘usable’ than its other ballistic missiles.

Ukraine: The Shock of Recognition

Dana Allin

In The Age of Extremes, Marxist historian Eric Hobsbawm reflected on the ‘exceptional and comparatively short-lived’ anti-fascist alliance of roughly 1933 to 1947. Its unity was manifest in an early product of the young American sample-survey industry. In January 1939, a Gallup poll found that, in the then still hypothetical event of war between the Soviet Union and Germany, 83% of Americans favoured a Soviet victory – a result that ‘would have amazed all US presidents before Franklin D. Roosevelt, and will amaze all readers who have grown up since the Second World War’.

The Russian Invasion, Cyber War, And Global Supply Chains

Steve Banker

When Russia invaded Ukraine, I knew there would be impacts on global supply chains. But supply chain impacts like the rising cost of gas, or the inability of a train to cross Siberia to bring goods from China to Europe, or the increased congestion this would cause at China ports, was not the supply chain impact I feared most. What I most feared was cyberwar.

9 April 2022

Top general warns about China's military. Here's the context

Zachary B. Wolf

(CNN)China and Russia are bent on changing the "rules-based current global order," according to America's top general.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley's prognosis, offered on Tuesday as he asked Congress for more money for the Pentagon, is for an era where large-scale war between major powers is a possibility.

"We are entering a world that is becoming more unstable, and the potential for significant international conflict between great powers is increasing, not decreasing."

‘Tectonic shifts’: How Putin’s war will change the world

John McLaughlin

Making predictions just as the Ukraine war delivers a series of huge surprises feels like a fool’s errand. But let’s try to peer a bit through the fog of war.

What got me thinking about this was the memory of a conversation with military historian Tom Ricks in the mountains of central Sicily a few years ago. We were there with Johns Hopkins University graduate students who were studying the 1943 Allied campaign against Germany. The fighting in Sicily had marked the beginning of the push to remove Adolf Hitler’s armies from the Italian peninsula.

The Russian Invasion, Cyber War, And Global Supply Chains

Steve Banker

When Russia invaded Ukraine, I knew there would be impacts on global supply chains. But supply chain impacts like the rising cost of gas, or the inability of a train to cross Siberia to bring goods from China to Europe, or the increased congestion this would cause at China ports, was not the supply chain impact I feared most. What I most feared was cyberwar.

The Ukraine War Is Giving Commercial Space an ‘Internet Moment’

JACQUELINE FELDSCHER

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo.—Capabilities honed by commercial space companies to document the destruction inflicted by Russia in Ukraine are likely to have long-lasting effects on the industry.

Satellites have brought the world unprecedented glimpses into the brutal war, whether through commercial imagery showing the Russian destruction of a shelter clearly labeled as having kids inside, social-media videos shared via SpaceX’s Starlink satellites, or a photojournalist’s pictures from Mariupol filed through satellite phones. It’s likely these graphic dispatches from the war zone have played at least some role in the global outpouring of support and aid, including the 4 in 10 Americans who said in a March poll that the U.S. should be doing more to help Ukraine.

Hicks: Today’s Russia Problem Mustn’t Distract from Tomorrow’s China Problem

PATRICK TUCKER

LOS ANGELES—As terrible as Russia’s war in Ukraine is, it pales in comparison to a potential fight against China, the Pentagon’s No. 2 civilian said.

The Ukrainian conflict “is not the degree of difficulty that we are looking at in terms of what we need to have to fight in the future,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks told reporters traveling with her to visit startups and technology partners in California this week. “You even see the Ukrainians asking for more and more advanced systems themselves. But, the [United States], we're very focused on how to make sure we have a really combat credible capability,” to deter China.

For a Lasting Peace, Europe Must Embrace Russia

JOHN NAGL and PAUL YINGLING

Russia, a great power inhabited by a great people, now stands humiliated on the world stage. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a crime against peace, and his conduct of that war is a crime against humanity. Putin may be adept at poisoning opponents and jailing dissenters, but his army cannot refuel tanks or fight at night. Having failed to conquer Ukraine in a swift coup de main, Russia turned to bombing hospitals and daycare centers in a failed effort to terrorize the indomitable Ukrainian population. Putin’s aggression has been rendered impotent by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a Churchill in an OD green t-shirt.

China’s Economic Crisis and Its Foreign Policy

George Friedman

China has reached a critical point that many countries often reach and that, however painful, is cleansing in the long term. Consider what happened to the mighty United States during the Great Depression. Tragic though it was, it cleared the way for a new economic and social model. The crisis started through optimism – a new economic dynamic emerged that was so successful it created the illusion that it was eternal. Eternity bred recklessness and thus created massive imbalances. The economy reached the limits of one model and then passed through the crucible that led to the emergence of a new one.

8 April 2022

11 STRATEGIES OF A WORLD-CLASS CYBERSECURITY OPERATIONS CENTER

Kathryn Knerler, Ingrid Parker, Carson Zimmerman

If you are getting started in cybersecurity operations, evolving your existing security operations center (SOC), or engaging with a SOC regularly, MITRE offers free downloads of 11 Strategies of a World-Class Cybersecurity Operations Center—both for the 20-page summary document and the full textbook. Fully revised, this second edition of the popular 10 Strategies of a World-Class Cybersecurity Operations Center includes new material and evolved thinking to bring a fresh approach to excelling at cybersecurity operations and leveraging up your cyber defenses.

Deterring China: A Victory Denial Strategy

Keith B. Payne and Matthew R. Costlow

The United States faces a deterrence challenge wholly unlike those of the Cold War—how to deter China, as a great power, from invading Taiwan. The United States and its allies confront a leadership in Beijing that has staked its legitimacy, to a large extent, on nationalism and the related promise of incorporating Taiwan into the political structure of the mainland.[1] The CCP leadership perceives this as an existential goal and failure to achieve unification as an existential threat. Correspondingly, China has worked for decades to shift the local balance of immediately-available military power for this purpose in its favor. Taiwan is significantly less militarily capable than China; its main ally, the United States, is geographically distant, and the extent of its deterrence commitment to Taiwan is intentionally ambiguous. Similarly, most U.S. allies in the region face the same problems of geographic distance and political sensitivities of interacting with Taiwan on defense issues. Finally, China’s prospective aggression would likely be met by an “international community”—much of which is heavily dependent economically on trade with China. Under these circumstances, the United States may be able to deter China from deciding to resolve the Taiwan Question forcefully, but the challenge is severe.

Purchasing from a pariah: India’s arms-acquisition dilemma

Douglas Barrie

Heavily reliant on Russian military technology, India finds itself in a difficult position following the invasion of Ukraine, explain Douglas Barrie and Viraj Solanki. It must assess the relative value of Russian support for its defence-industrial ambitions versus its ever-closer strategic partnership with Washington.

Non-Nuclear Weapons with Strategic Effect: New Tools of Warfare?

Fabian Hoffmann

Non-nuclear strategic weapons remain understudied conceptually and empirically. In order to enhance the understanding of this weapons category and its implications for security and defence policy, IISS–Europe convened a hybrid roundtable with the title ‘Non-Nuclear Weapons with Strategic Effect: New Tools of Warfare?’, with roundtable attendees from Europe, North America and the Indo-Pacific, and comprised analysts from think tanks and academia, government and military representatives and industry experts. This report outlines the main findings from the event.

THE WISDOM OF U.S. MILITARY WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN

ANDREW DORIS

The defining decision of President Joe Biden’s first year of foreign policy was the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, where America fought its longest war from 2001 to 2021.

By the end of this time, the costs of continued war outweighed any strategic or humanitarian interest the United States had left in the country. This explainer accounts for these costs then compares them to the war’s alleged benefits to show why withdrawing from Afghanistan was necessary, beneficial, and overdue.

Amid heartbreaking scenes at Kabul airport, several prominent critics argued the United States should have sustained a “light footprint” to “support American allies,” just as it does all over the world.1 After all, U.S. forces have been in Germany, Japan, and South Korea for more than 70 years.2 Should the United States have been equally patient in Afghanistan?3

Artificial Intelligence: DOD Should Improve Strategies, Inventory Process, and Collaboration Guidance

The Defense Department believes that artificial intelligence will transform warfare, and failure to adopt AI technology could hinder national security. DOD is making organizational changes and investing billions of dollars to incorporate AI technology.

We found that DOD's AI-related strategies could be more comprehensive, such as by including full descriptions of the resources needed for developing AI-enabled technologies. In addition, DOD has not yet issued guidance that clearly defines the roles and responsibilities of components that participate in AI activities.

Fight Fire with Fire: The PLA Studies Hybrid Warfare

Moscow’s recent escalation of its invasion of Ukraine has refocused the world’s attention on a war that began in 2014 with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its proxy war against Kyiv in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s successes in Ukraine in 2014 and the subsequent panic over Russian interference in Western democracies’ elections made “hybrid warfare,” the supposedly new form of warfare that Russia pioneered, a term that is commonly used but is often only vaguely understood.

The Chinese Communist Party’s military, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), recently sought to impart to its rank-and-file a proper understanding of hybrid warfare by publishing a series of articles in its official newspaper. The articles were not the first concerning hybrid warfare that the newspaper has published, but the series is significant because such series are rare. The series was clearly meant to be studied by the entire PLA, so it represents the most authoritative explanation of the PLA’s conception of hybrid warfare that has been openly published.

Trading in US-India data flows: Prospects for cooperation in US-India data policy

Justin Sherman

As the Joe Biden administration and the Narendra Modi government re-convene the US-India Trade Policy Forum (TPF) after a four-year hiatus, one digital issue set remains central to challenges and opportunities in US-India trade: cross-border data flows and data policy. These issues received some attention under the Donald Trump administration, but the combination of a new US administration, key developments in Indian cross-border data flow and data policies, and rising global calls for data privacy and data localization rules make this a unique and important moment for the two powers. With leading technology sectors, strong political influence, and some of the largest economies on the planet, the United States and India have real opportunities to identify common ground on data policy and work to maximize the mutual benefits therein. Yet, key political and ideological differences—particularly around data localization and ideas of data sovereignty—will challenge the United States and India to focus on areas of cooperation with potential for tangible, near-term achievements, rather than attempting to address every data issue at once.

Preparing the next phase of US cyber strategy

Jenny Jun

Four years after the 2018 Cyber Posture Review, the Department of Defense (DoD) will likely soon complete a review of how cyber capabilities and operations relate to the broader US military strategy. A key strategic concept in the current US cyber strategy is Defend Forward, which aims to “disrupt or halt malicious cyber activity at its source” in order to “stop threats before they reach our targets.”1 Several documents articulate this concept including the 2018 Command Vision for US Cyber Command, the 2018 DoD Cyber Strategy, and the 2020 Cyberspace Solarium Commission Final Report.2

A New Framework for Understanding and Countering China's Gray Zone Tactics

Bonny Lin, Cristina L. Garafola, Bruce McClintock, et al.

Gray zone tactics—coercive actions that are shy of armed conflict but beyond normal diplomatic, economic, and other activities—are widely recognized as playing an increasingly important role in China's efforts to advance its domestic, economic, foreign policy, and security objectives, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. But there is little consensus to date on which tactics pose the greatest challenges to the United States and its allies and partners in the region.

RAND Project Air Force researchers developed a framework to help U.S. policymakers categorize China's use of gray zone tactics and identify the most-problematic People's Republic of China (PRC) tactics that the United States could prioritize countering. Studies of China's gray zone tactics typically have focused on specific countries, domains (e.g., maritime), or incidents. RAND analyzed trends and patterns in China's gray zone behavior by examining the country's use of different types of gray zone tactics over time against five key U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific: Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, India, and the Philippines.

ONE MONTH OF WAR IN UKRAINE: THE FIRST TAKEAWAYS

CYRILLE BRET

One month on from the outbreak of war in Ukraine, it is unfortunately not yet time to draw our final conclusions. However, an initial provisional political stocktaking exercise is particularly necessary as the conflict is experiencing a moment of uncertainty which may lead to a tipping point. The future of Ukraine, the importance of Russia and the security of Europe are at stake and the fighting has not yet settled anything. Russia’s “special military operation” launched on 24th February had a threefold objective: to change the regime in Ukraine, to confirm Russia’s power and to show up the European Union’s weaknesses. Yet today, despite high-intensity fighting and snatches of diplomatic discussions, the fates of the three main protagonists of this war have not yet been sealed. We could even go further and consider that the four weeks of armed conflict place each of the stakeholders at a crossroads that remains uncertain.

Pakistan’s Political Crisis Is Masking a Foreign Policy Realignment

Arif Rafiq

Addressing a security forum in Islamabad on Saturday, Pakistan’s army chief of staff, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine in no uncertain terms, describing it as an “invasion” and “aggression against a smaller country that cannot be condoned.”

These statements would be uncontroversial had they not contradicted the official position of Pakistan’s civilian government, which is in the midst of a political crisis that also involves the army. Indeed, Pakistan’s ongoing political turmoil—which has seen Prime Minister Imran Khan avoid a vote of no confidence through questionable parliamentary maneuvers, as his coalition and party fracture amid pressure from the opposition—is as much about foreign policy as it is about domestic politics.

German Industry Prepares for Worst-Case Scenario

Tim Bartz, Simon Book, Simon Hage

You can find something from Hinrich Mählmann just about everywhere you look in Germany. His company, the Otto Fuchs Group, founded in 1910, literally delivers the things that make the country move. They include wheels and coupling systems for railroads, engine components for the aviation industry and even battery housings for electric cars. Mählmann also sells thermally insulated windows and doors through its subsidiary Schüco. The supplier has revenues of just under 3 billion euros annually and employs 10,000 people.

Why the destruction of Ukraine’s churches matters

Christopher Howse

One small, deadly incident in the Ukrainian war proved memorable because it involved the ordinary things of life. A mother and two children trying to leave the town of Irpin on foot on 6 March died from Russian shelling. Their suitcases fell beside them and, miserably, a pet dog carrier. They lay on an ordinary road that could be in Surrey, on the steps of a memorial to Soviet dead from the second world war.

The Russo-Ukraine War: Phase Two

Lawrence Freedman

On 24 February as they began their invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces began shelling Mariupol, a port city of over 400,000 inhabitants. The next day they began to advance to its outskirts. By 2 March the city was surrounded and the shelling had become routine and deadly. Soon reports came in of schools and hospitals being hit. On 5 March came the first attempt to evacuate people under the auspices of the Red Cross: a convoy was organised but it was unable to escape because, despite Russian promises, the shelling did not stop. This was to be repeated many times. The lives of the residents became progressively more miserable and dangerous, with shelters, including one under a theatre, being targeted as well as homes. Some 90 percent of the buildings are now said to have been destroyed. By late March the Mayor was reporting that 5,000 civilians had been killed.

Why Cyber Holds the Entire World at Risk

Danielle Jablanski

“Cyber” as a field of study is riddled with poor analogies as takes on cyber strategy and statecraft continue to get hotter with no boiling point in sight. With the dawn of digitization, scholars and pundits alike began to predict a multipolar world in which digital interdependence of society and economy would hamstring great power competition. The truth is it only makes it uglier.

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)