Luke Coffey
Executive Summary
President Donald Trump has made ending the war in Ukraine a central pillar of his foreign policy. While his desire to broker peace appears sincere, any resolution needs to preserve Ukrainian sovereignty and the long-term security interests of the United States and its allies. A ceasefire that allows Russia to regroup and rearm would only delay a larger conflict. The war’s outcome will shape Ukraine’s future as well as the future of transatlantic security.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukrainians have demonstrated remarkable resilience and courage, reclaiming nearly half of the land Russia initially occupied. The Ukrainians want the war to end, but they do not want to surrender. Instead, they seek a just peace, which should be rooted in four essential principles:
- Formal non-recognition of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.Occupied areas should never be legitimized as part of the Russian Federation. The 1940 Welles Declaration, wherein the US refused to recognize Soviet control of the Baltic states, is a useful precedent for how such a policy can uphold international law.
- Meaningful reconstruction assistance. Western governments and institutions should help fund Ukraine’s recovery with a combination of frozen Russian assets, private investment, and direct aid, ensuring the country’s economic resilience and long-term stability. Major ports such as Mykolaiv and Kherson should be reopened.
- Return of prisoners of war, political detainees, and abducted Ukrainian children. Tens of thousands remain in Russian custody, including over 19,000 children forcibly taken from their families. Repatriation should be a moral and legal priority in any settlement.
- Full preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty. Ukraine needs the right to shape its own government, conduct elections, join alliances, and build its military free from Russian interference.
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