In order to achieve its stated objective of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, Israel will need to take out a key Iranian facility, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. Fordow is buried deep under a mountain near Qom and is believed to be one of the key sites of Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities, about 54,000 square feet in size, with 3,000 centrifuges. Due to its hardening and depth, Israel lacks the ordnance to take out Fordow on its own in the short term; however, multiple strikes from the U.S. GBU-57, carried out by U.S. B-2 bombers,
could destroy the facility. It has been reported that President Trump is weighing his options for whether or not to strike Fordow. On the one hand, Israel’s attacks on Iran’s military and nuclear assets have created a unique opportunity for significantly undermining the country’s potential for developing nuclear weapons. Given the administration’s stated nonproliferation objectives, with JD Vance stating, “the president hates nuclear proliferation. I hate nuclear proliferation”, striking Fordow could be a tempting prospect. On the other hand, using the GBU-57 would constitute direct support for Israel and have the potential to escalate and drag the United States into another war in the region.
The destruction of Fordow is shaping up to be a Rubicon as the crisis escalates. The GBU-57 may not fully destroy the facility, so regardless of Trump’s decision, Fordow will likely remain a challenge for nonproliferation efforts.
There are at least five options for destroying Fordow. All of them will have varying degrees of impact on Iran’s nuclear program, along with unique risks of escalation and international response. Below is an analysis of all five options; however, to avoid escalation while still achieving nonproliferation objectives, Israeli sabotage appears to be an underappreciated option.
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