Talal Mohammad
Though Tehran and Riyadh appear to be getting closer, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is quietly boxing in Iran—replacing confrontation with containment through diplomacy, economic leverage, and nuclear pressure.
When Saudi Arabia and Iran restored relations in 2023, the move was widely seen as a turning point. But behind the optics of smiles and handshakes, their core rivalry continued. MBS simply changed the game: masking the iron fist with a velvet glove. It may look like a thaw, but in reality, it's a recalibrated contest for influence. MBS is boxing Iran in Syria, Lebanon, and nuclear diplomacy.
Once on opposite sides of Syria's civil war, Riyadh and Damascus are now forging a strategic bond. Saudi Arabia is using investment to edge out Iran. In May 2025, MBS arranged a private meeting between President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa—positioning Riyadh, not Tehran, as Syria's international diplomatic guarantor.
In Lebanon, the 2023–24 Israel–Hezbollah war devastated Iran's top proxy. Israeli strikes killed much of Hezbollah's leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, and crippled its infrastructure. With Tehran financially constrained, Saudi Arabia stepped in.
Riyadh now plays a gatekeeping role in Lebanon's reconstruction, with foreign aid increasingly tied to Gulf approval. The rise of pro-Gulf leaders such as Army Chief Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, a former ICJ judge, signals a political pivot.
Iran's "Shiite Crescent," once central to Tehran's power projection across Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, is giving way to a "Saudi Full Moon"—a widening sphere of influence built on investment, diplomacy, and institutional leadership.
No comments:
Post a Comment