Scott N. Romaniuk
Israel’s current role in Syria is best understood as a three-track strategy: creating facts on the ground in the south-west, shaping Syria’s internal balance through selective relationships with minority armed actors (especially Druze networks), and probing for a diplomatic security arrangement that locks in Israeli red lines while avoiding the costs of a long-term occupation.
The main shift during the latter half of December has been the synchronisation of these tracks: ground activity in Quneitra and in and around the UN-patrolled separation area has coincided with renewed attention to covert Druze support and more explicit Israeli public discussion of an ‘agreement’ conditioned on a deep demilitarised belt extending well beyond the 1974 lines.
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