Dr. Mohamed ELDoh
As of December, the confrontation between Israel and Iran has entered a volatile phase – one marked not by rhetoric alone, but by a clear military signaling and a narrowing diplomatic window. In the space of days, a cluster of developments, including missile tests across Iran, executions linked to espionage, senior military warnings in Israel, and parallel declarations of readiness from Tehran, have reinforced a growing belief among Israeli decision-makers that the confrontation is already approaching a point of no return.
Israel’s increasing likelihood of striking Iran does not stem from a single trigger but from the convergence of several strategic trends, including accelerating Iranian missile restocking and signaling, nuclear ambiguity absent verification, and the expansion and confidence of Iran’s proxy network, in addition to the collapse of mutual restraint in the intelligence and deterrence domain. Taken together, these dynamics are reshaping Israel’s calculus from risk management to preventive action.
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