K. Tristan Tang
According to data released by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND), People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft sorties and naval vessel deployments around Taiwan reached new record highs in 2025. At first glance, this suggests an intensification of gray-zone pressure compared with 2024. Closer examination of disaggregated data, however, shows that the growth rate of aircraft and naval activity in 2025 was lower than the increase observed in 2024. Aircraft and naval activity in the second half of 2025 was also generally lower than in the first half, which contrasts with patterns seen in previous years.
This shift may reflect a reduced emphasis on gray-zone coercion against Taiwan following the purge of the former Central Military Commission (CMC) second vice chairman He Weidong (何卫东), as well as the PLA’s increased focus on exploring new models of joint operations training. This training emphasis likely redirected resources and forces toward joint training areas located farther from Taiwan, thereby reducing the intensity of PLA air and naval activity in Taiwan’s immediate vicinity.
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