Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos that states caught between Washington and Beijing must stop negotiating alone, emphasizing that "If we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu." This sentiment reflects a renewed focus on middle powers like India, Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Australia, Canada,
Europe, Japan, and South Korea, often interpreted as the arrival of a multipolar world where the United States is losing its grip. However, this perspective mistakes anxiety for strength, as middle powers are becoming more visible due to increased exposure, not power. The conditions that previously allowed them to flourish—U.S. hegemony, an expanding global economy, and the ability to trade with rivals without choosing sides—are eroding. Global growth has slowed, globalization has become a contest over chokepoints, and great powers are more predatory. The United States increasingly extracts concessions, while China uses subsidies, export gluts, debt, infrastructure, military harassment, and economic sanctions to narrow other countries' choices. This dynamic creates a harsher world where the two top powers exert greater influence, rather than a flatter system of ascendant middle powers.
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