During a recent trip to Beijing, Michael McFaul observed significant Chinese confidence in their rising global power, particularly following the Trump-Xi and Xi-Putin summits. Chinese academics and officials widely perceived the United States as a declining power, a view reinforced by Trump's perceived weakness and his acceptance of China's "constructive strategic stability" framing.
Xi Jinping reportedly pressed Trump hard on American and Japanese support for Taiwan, emboldened by previous tariff disputes where Trump backed down. Chinese scholars believe Xi achieved his objectives on Taiwan, citing Trump's subsequent comments and Secretary Hegseth's omission of Taiwan in a key speech. While US-China trade commitments were modest, McFaul cautioned against a "détente 2.0" analogy, drawing parallels to Soviet overreach in Afghanistan and subtly warning about Taiwan. The Xi-Putin summit demonstrated closer ties, but with limits, as Xi did not commit to the Power of Siberia II pipeline or halt Chinese components reaching Ukraine. Economically, China shows a boom in EVs and AI, yet economists expressed concerns about inequality, overproduction, and demographic challenges.
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