17 June 2026

Iran’s regime survives, Israel worries: Winners, losers emerging from new US-Iran deal - analysis

Manual Input  |  Amichai Stein

Two Israeli strikes over the past year significantly influenced a rapid American push toward ceasefire agreements in the Middle East, impacting both the Israel-Hamas conflict and US-Iran relations. On September 9, 2025, an Israeli strike targeting senior Hamas leaders in Doha during Operation Summit of Fire in Qatar directly led to a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas War several weeks later and the release of all Israeli hostages.

Following this operation, US President Donald Trump concluded an agreement was needed, applying pressure on Israel, Turkey, and Qatar, which in turn conveyed a clear message to Hamas to end the conflict. Less than a year later, a subsequent Israeli strike on Sunday in Beirut's Dahiyeh district, which targeted a Hezbollah headquarters, accelerated the American effort to persuade Iran to sign a new agreement. These targeted military actions served as critical catalysts for diplomatic breakthroughs, shaping regional stability and influencing US foreign policy objectives regarding Iran and its proxies.

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