Artificial Intelligence Arms Control Would be a Disastrous Mistake

Real Clear Defense  |  Michaela Dodge, Michael Hochberg

The United States and China are rapidly accelerating investments in artificial intelligence capabilities, creating an intense technological competition that threatens to reshape the global balance of power. While Beijing advocates for international AI regulations and arms control frameworks, these diplomatic initiatives are designed to disproportionately disadvantage Washington by slowing Western innovation while China covertly bypasses compliance.

This regulatory asymmetry stems from divergent national preferences for the international order, where the Chinese Communist Party leverages state power to secure unilateral technological advantages. Recent developments, such as the rapid deployment of China's DeepSeek R1 model and state-sponsored cyber-espionage campaigns utilizing Western AI infrastructure, highlight the severe verification challenges inherent in general-purpose software. Because critical AI inputs like graphics processing units, model weights, and electrical grids are highly dual-use, traditional count-and-cap arms control verification mechanisms remain entirely unfeasible. Consequently, maintaining technological superiority through massive infrastructure investments like the Stargate partnership represents the only viable deterrent against revisionist adversaries.

Comment

National security strategies must prioritise domestic industrial resilience over international treaties. Dual-use technologies bypass traditional verification mechanisms due to their intangible nature. State actors will inevitably exploit regulatory loopholes to gain asymmetric advantages. True deterrence relies on superior manufacturing capacity and secure supply chains.

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