The May 2025 trilateral agreement between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, formalizing the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghan territory, was celebrated by Beijing as a geopolitical turning point, yet within five months, Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged artillery fire and airstrikes. This demonstrated Beijing’s economic statecraft proved insufficient for the region's political complexity, failing to address the ideological-military nexus causing volatility on the Af-Pak border.
The February 2026 rupture demands a fundamental reappraisal of regional engagement assumptions. The international community should engage the post-conflict space by resourcing alternative connectivity frameworks like Chabahar and INSTC, develop a critical minerals strategy for Afghanistan to prevent a Chinese extraction monopoly, and establish a multilateral Af-Pak border monitoring mechanism. Inclusive regional connectivity frameworks including India, Iran, and Central Asian states are crucial, treating the Af-Pak conflict as a European security issue due to displacement flows. The EU-Central Asia Strategic Partnership should keep Afghanistan’s connectivity options open, renewing and activating existing border management programs.
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