Andrew Latham
Key Points and Summary – In 2026, the United States will still field unmatched military power—but with almost no margin for error. A second Trump administration is far more likely to overreach than to hold back, and the real danger lies in five avoidable mistakes.
-Escalating too hard in the South China Sea could trap Washington on an escalation ladder with Beijing. Ignoring gray-zone pressure, mishandling alliance burden-sharing, and confusing volatility with strength would steadily erode deterrence.
A U.S. Air Force 5th Bomb Wing B-52 Stratofortress approaches a U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker, assigned to the 909th Air Refueling Squadron, to perform aerial refueling over the Pacific Ocean, Oct. 27, 2022. Aerial refueling allows friendly aircraft to continue their mission without needing to return to the base for fuel. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman Alexis Redin).
-Treating Venezuela as a military problem to “solve” would drain resources and legitimacy. Power, this piece argues, is spent by impatience—and preserved by disciplined restraint.
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