30 December 2025

China: An Ally Waiting for Russia’s Defeat?

Sergey E. Ivashchenko

From the first months of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia tried to present China as a strategic partner, capable of supporting it on the international arena. However, Beijing chose a more cautious line of behavior. Chinese statements about the necessity of negotiations and peaceful settlement sound regularly, but they remain declarative. Beijing is careful to avoid concrete steps that could turn it into a full-fledged mediator.

The reasons for such caution are obvious. First, China strives to preserve the image of a global power, capable of influencing conflicts, but does not want to take upon itself responsibility for their outcome. Second, direct interference in the negotiation process would put Beijing in an uncomfortable position: it would have to openly designate whose side it stands on and take upon itself quite concrete, and not declarative, commitments. In conditions when China simultaneously develops economic ties with Russia and supports trade relations with the West, such clarity is disadvantageous.

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