22 December 2025

Invading Venezuela: The One-Word Reason America Won't Do It

Steve Balestrieri 

Key Points and Summary – A U.S. ground invasion of Venezuela is highly unlikely—but if it happened, the real war would start after Maduro fell.

-Expert Steve Balestrieri argues that America’s poor track record in counterinsurgency, from Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan, would collide with Venezuela’s size, dense cities, and fractured politics.

A U.S. Army M1A3 Abrams Tank from the 1-12 Cavalry Squadron, 1st Cavalry Division waiting to be guided onto a loading vehicle and secured for transport at the Port of Agadir, June 3, 2022, Agadir, Morocco. African Lion 2022 is U.S. Africa Command’s largest, premier, joint, annual exercise hosted by Morocco, Ghana, Senegal and Tunisia, June 6 – 30. More than 7,500 participants from 28 nations and NATO train together with a focus on enhancing readiness for U.S. and partner nation forces. AL22 is a joint all-domain, multi-component and multinational exercise, employing a full array of mission capabilities with the goal to strengthen interoperability among participants and set the theater for strategic access. (U.S. Army photo by PFC Donald Franklin)

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