Sascha Bruchmann and Martin ‘Sammy’ Sampson
The prospect of a deal between the United States and Iran, if the regime survives, hinges on several factors. The US course of action in the coming days or weeks, notably whether it embarks on military intervention or favours diplomatic engagement instead, may be decisive in determining Iran’s appetite for negotiations with Washington. Despite a lacklustre response to US strikes on its nuclear facilities in June 2025, Iran has held on to its refusal to negotiate with Washington over its conventional capabilities.
Given the failure of its air defences during the Twelve-Day War with Israel and the decimation of its network of armed non-state actors in Lebanon and Gaza, missiles are the last remaining pillar of Iran’s deterrence strategy. As a result, Iran has embarked on a sustained effort to reconstitute its missile forces and production infrastructure following the damage they sustained during the war with Israel.
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