Ian Murphy
This commentary argues that the field of irregular warfare must expand its focus beyond operational and tactical dimensions to include the institutional battlefield. The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war serves as a case study in which Russia has systematically imposed new governance, economic, and educational institutions in the occupied Donbas region. This institutional imposition is not a byproduct of occupation, but a calculated strategy designed to create a new long-term reality by permanently altering the adversary’s political and social equilibrium. Drawing on the concept of path dependence from economic development, this analysis demonstrates how deliberate institutional changes—such as forced passportization and Russification—produce a new equilibrium from which there is no return, regardless of the military outcome of the war. This commentary urges the irregular warfare community to integrate the study of institutional path dependence into its analysis to better understand how states use institutions as instruments of irregular warfare in modern conflict.
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