India’s ‘PRAHAAR’ Doctrine Addresses Evolving Terrorist Threat Landscape

Jamestown Foundation | Animesh Roul

India unveiled its first comprehensive counter-terrorism doctrine, named 'PRAHAAR,' on February 23 to codify a decade-long transition from reactive crisis management toward preventive disruption across seven key pillars. The eight-page strategy identifies new technological vectors such as encrypted communications, cryptocurrency syndicates, drone logistics, and potential CBRNED material proliferation alongside traditional cross-border militancy.

Although the doctrine establishes robust frameworks for asset freezes and individual terrorist designations under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, it currently lacks detailed guidance on emerging threats like algorithmic radicalization, generative artificial intelligence propaganda, and calibrated military deterrence. The strategy formalizes a whole-of-society approach that integrates domestic intelligence-sharing networks, regional police operations, and international diplomatic campaigns. Despite these structural gaps, the framework provides a foundational baseline for anticipating, disrupting, and neutralizing decentralized terror ecosystems operating within and beyond the country's borders.

Tibet Response Tests Joint Command, Military–Civil Fusion

The Jamestown Foundation | Joshua Arostegui

The People’s Liberation Army Western Theater Command utilized the August 2026 Gyirong mudslides as an unscripted operational testbed, exercising direct joint control over Tibet Military District forces. Severe geographical and electromagnetic constraints in the Himalayan valleys required multi-service airspace deconfliction alongside an intelligentized command architecture integrating remote-sensing satellites and tactical unmanned aerial vehicles.

The mobilization validated Beijing’s wartime logistical template by deploying specialized state-owned enterprises for rapid route clearance while utilizing the People’s Armed Police to maintain command cohesion in a degraded battlespace. This rapid projection of a joint element within 48 hours demonstrates strategic mobility along the Line of Actual Control, though heavy reliance on civilian logistics assets reveals potential vulnerabilities during high-intensity conflict.

Inside China's mind on AI

Axios | Jim VandeHei

China is pursuing a state-directed artificial intelligence strategy focused on deep domestic adoption, contrasting sharply with America's emphasis on speed and raw super-intelligence development. The Chinese government aims to integrate AI across 90% of its economy by 2030 through its 15th Five-Year Plan, prioritizing social control and ideological security over fears of white-collar job displacement.

Underlying this aggressive push are severe domestic vulnerabilities, including a shrinking population that has fallen for four consecutive years, youth unemployment sitting at 19%, and inferior chip production capabilities compared to American hardware like Nvidia. Despite these hardware constraints, China maintains structural advantages in the physical inputs required for scaling technology, including abundant electricity generation, dominance over vital refining minerals, and extensive deployment of industrial robotics. Chinese open-source models such as Moonshot's Kimi K3, Alibaba's Qwen3.8-Max, Zhipu's GLM-5.3, and DeepSeek V4 have become global standards for cost-effective development, though U.S. officials accuse labs of covertly using data distillation techniques.

How China plans to turn quantum into a future industry

Chinaquantumfo | Elias X. Huber

China is transitioning its quantum sector from foundational scientific research to industrialization and commercial market dominance under its 15th Five-Year Plan recommendations. The Chinese government has elevated quantum technology to the top position among future industries, shifting from a linear science-push model to a mission-driven approach focused on New Quality Productive Forces.

Local governments, particularly in Hefei, are deploying aggressive industrial policies—including dedicated Government Guidance Funds, tech parks, and the Quantum Information Thousand Scenarios Action—to integrate quantum computing, communication, and sensing applications across state-owned enterprises. This state-backed industrial push aims to build commercial application platforms, expand domestic market demand, and scale upstream and downstream supply chains. Consequently, Chinese quantum technologies are expected to systematically advance toward international export markets through Belt and Road Initiative partnerships, challenging Western isolation efforts.

As Xi Lands In Washington, Uyghurs And Tibetans Press Trump For Human Rights Showdown

Eurasia Review | Eugene Whong

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday for a three-day summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, as diaspora minority advocacy groups pressed for a human rights showdown over Xinjiang and Tibet. The World Uyghur Congress and the East Turkestan Government-in-Exile urged the administration to move beyond condemnation of the genocide designation first established in Trump's initial term.

Tibetan advocates and USCIRF Chair Asif Mahmood similarly demanded discussions on cultural erasure, political prisoners, and the 1995 disappearance of the Panchen Lama Gedhun Choekyi Nyima. The high-level visit breaks precedent by bypassing the White House for the tarmac arrival, reflecting mutual intent to stabilize relations. Both delegations intend to negotiate critical frictions regarding tariffs, soybean exports, supply chain security, artificial intelligence governance, and Taiwan arms sales while weighing an extension of last year's trade truce.

The U.S. Has More Leverage In Iraq Than Inks

Eurasia Review | James Durso

As U.S. forces prepare to leave Iraq by 30 September 2026, Washington must transition from military control to leveraging economic power, financial systems, and intelligence cooperation under the 2008 U.S.–Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement. Maintaining stability requires avoiding a forced ultimatum over Iran-aligned militias or an impossible choice between Washington and Tehran, drawing the line solely at parallel illicit military structures rather than trade or energy imports.

While Iraqi banks depend heavily on the international dollar system and U.S. financial restrictions demonstrated considerable sway in 2026, attempting to instantly disarm integrated political militias risks igniting civil conflict reminiscent of the 2003 army disbandment. The winning formula centers on U.S. withdrawal paired with Iraqi sovereignty, foreign direct investment, discreet financial leverage, and gradual, Iraqi-led militia reform rather than external coercion. Preserving long-term American influence in Baghdad ultimately requires accepting sovereign independence over direct intervention.

What Franklin Roosevelt Understood About Military Leadership

Real Clear Defense | Edward Farley Aldrich

The United States Army is losing its senior leadership amid high-level departures, raising critical questions about civilian oversight and military advice. Recent resignations and removals under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth highlight tensions over modernization and readiness that echo historical friction during wartime governance. Franklin D. Roosevelt successfully navigated such friction during World War II by deliberately selecting strong, independent advisers like Secretary of War Henry L.

Stimson and Army Chief of Staff George C. Marshall. Marshall famously disagreed with Roosevelt before a major decision in 1938 yet was still appointed chief of staff a year later, establishing a functional boundary of unvarnished counsel combined with absolute obedience after decisions were finalized. This historical partnership demonstrates that effective leadership requires presidents and civilian chiefs to welcome dissenting military judgment rather than cultivate deference. Fostering an environment where expert disagreement does not end careers remains vital for strategic success.

How Putin Escalates

Foreign Affairs | Andrei Kolesnikov

President Vladimir Putin secured a supermajority for the United Russia party in parliamentary elections through compulsory voting mechanisms, standardized military ballots, and the pre-election removal of the antiwar Yabloko party. These engineered electoral outcomes mark a new stage in Russia's confrontation with Ukraine and the West, institutionalizing tighter internal control.

The ruling party's dominance relies on bureaucratic compliance across budget-dependent organizations and corporations, ensuring political consolidation ahead of external escalation. Compulsory voting practices within law enforcement agencies and newly integrated territories reinforced the regime's grip on the legislative process. These controlled electoral dynamics reflect a systematic elimination of political opposition, cementing an authoritarian domestic architecture to sustain protracted conflict. The suppression of legal dissent demonstrates how domestic political sterilization directly underpins external aggression, leaving no viable institutional channels for opposition forces.

Russia Trying to Replace Starlink

The Jamestown Foundation | John C. K. Daly

Russia is accelerating the deployment of its Rassvet satellite constellation via Soyuz-2.1b rockets to replace Starlink terminals previously used for drone strikes and communications. Developed by Bureau 1440 under the Ministry of Digital Development, the low-orbit network requires hundreds of operational spacecraft by 2030 to secure military and civilian broadband coverage.

This indigenous program encounters severe industrial constraints and orbital failures, with initial deployment setbacks including inactive propulsion systems and reentered spacecraft. Ukraine is actively countering the initiative through diplomatic appeals to the International Telecommunication Union and military targeting of Russian space infrastructure. Meanwhile, military analysts debate the constellation's current operational impact on frontline reconnaissance and precision strike coordination. Bureau 1440 must execute numerous additional launches to achieve continuous orbital coverage across domestic and contested theaters.

U.S.-India Insight: India’s Trade Deals: Only a Starting Point to Progress

Csis | Richard M. Rossow

India has secured substantial nominal gains in bilateral goods trade following the implementation of economic agreements with Australia and the United Arab Emirates in 2022. Total annual goods trade between New Delhi and Canberra surged 76 percent to average $23 billion in fiscal years 2025 and 2026, while trade with Abu Dhabi climbed 81 percent to reach $100 billion annually over the same period.

Despite these impressive headline increases, neither partner has drastically altered India's aggregate trade basket, with Australia remaining stagnant at 2 percent and the United Arab Emirates shifting modestly from 7 to 8 percent. This marginal macro-level impact demonstrates that bilateral trade pacts fail to generate immediate structural shifts without concurrent domestic economic restructuring. Production Linked Incentive schemes and trade pacts must be underpinned by difficult structural reforms in land, labor, power, water, and judicial remediation to boost manufacturing competitiveness beyond its long-standing 13 to 15 percent share of gross domestic product.

OpenAI gives cyber defence tools to Ukraine

Bbc | Zoe Kleinman

OpenAI will share its Daybreak AI cyber defence system for free with the Ukraine government to protect civilian infrastructure, such as hospitals and power plants, from cyber-attacks. Under the agreement, Ukraine will receive access to OpenAI's GPT 5.6 Sol model as it counters nearly 6,000 cyber-attacks recorded in 2025 by CERT-UA.

Russian offensive cyber operations have been a key component of Moscow's aggression since 2014, prompting tech firms to supply defensive tools while gathering valuable conflict data. Analysts note that frontier AI models possess dual-use capabilities, serving defenders while simultaneously posing risks when exploited by malicious actors for reconnaissance and infrastructure infiltration. Meanwhile, tech executives gathered at the UN General Assembly amid growing warnings from industry leaders regarding the rapid proliferation of autonomous cyber threats.

The War Of Endurance: Russia, Ukraine, And The Struggle Behind The Front Lines

Eurasia Review | Philip Wasielewski

The Russo-Ukrainian War has evolved into a war of attrition where both sides target each other's societies and economies after front-line military operations reached a deadlock. Ukraine faces severe economic strain, a 20 percent drop in GDP, blocked Black Sea ports, and political instability over mobilization, corruption, and leadership disputes.

Despite these internal challenges, Kyiv is sustained by extensive Western financial aid and a rapidly expanding domestic defense industrial base. Meanwhile, Russia maintains maximalist war aims, absorbing heavy monthly casualties of 30,000 to 35,000 personnel while suffering under a sustained Ukrainian drone and missile campaign against its energy refineries and retail infrastructure. With neither side willing to capitulate and public polling showing that 61 percent of Ukrainians remain prepared to fight indefinitely, the conflict now depends on which nation's economy, military, or societal will collapses first.

Hunger on the Horizon: The New Black Sea Grain Crisis

Cfr | Samuel Henry Lazarus

The Russia-Ukraine war re-erupted along its southern maritime axis in July 2026, shattering a three-year détente in the Black Sea and shuttering ports on the eve of harvest season. Strikes have since kept the world’s most important grain chokepoint closed, disrupting the export of 17 percent of the world’s traded grain.

Parallel Russian and Ukrainian strikes targeting Black Sea ports are rapidly destroying and idling agricultural export capacity much faster than it can be restored or rerouted. This mutual blockade coincides with global agricultural shocks, including a super El Niño and reduced harvests in the United States, driving wheat prices to nearly $8 per bushel. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry recorded 124 Russian attacks on Greater Odesa ports in July alone, while Russian ports like Novorossiysk faced crippling drone and missile assaults from Ukraine. These military escalations threaten acute global food insecurity and widespread economic contraction.

Israel At The Crossroads: The October 27, 2026 Election And The Contest For The Post-Netanyahu Order – Analysis

Eurasiareview | Dr. Mohamed Chtatou

Israel will hold its first on-time Knesset election since 1988 on October 27, 2026, following the Gaza war, the Lebanon conflict, and the 2026 war with Iran. The vote acts as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu’s sixteen-year political dominance, accountability for the October 7 security failures, and the stability of a fragmented thirty-eight-party system.

September polls show Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading Likud, while the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs remain tightly contested around fifty-two to fifty-four seats each. Kingmakers such as Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and right-wing threshold risks will determine the outcome amid Haredi conscription disputes, far-right divisions, and a recent Haaretz report alleging a pre-attack UAE warning that Netanyahu’s office denies. Whoever wins will face a heavy national debt, a large defense budget, strained U.S.-Israel relations, and a stalled normalization track tied to a Palestinian horizon the incumbent rejects.

Netanyahu’s greatest illusion: That Israel’s security depends on him

Jerusalem Post | Yonatan Touval

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces an upcoming October 27 election with current polls leaving his governing bloc short of a parliamentary majority. For four decades, Netanyahu has built his political career around claims of indispensability, portraying himself as uniquely qualified to manage external threats like Iran while suppressing internal party rivals.

The October 7 massacre shattered his core security promise, yet successive security emergencies and ongoing regional conflict have been repurposed to postpone accountability and sustain his grip on power. While his campaigns continue to weaponize foreign hostility as a qualification for office, his international standing has narrowed amid an ICC arrest warrant and diplomatic walkouts at the United Nations. The central illusion of his tenure remains the unproven premise that Israel's national survival depends exclusively on his continued political leadership.

Technological Leapfrogging in the AI Age

Project Syndicate | Mark-Alexandre Doumba

African economies have increasingly relied on past success stories to assume that developing nations can bypass expensive infrastructure stages by adopting foreign technologies. This assumption requires rigorous scrutiny when applied directly to imported artificial intelligence systems. Policymakers face distinct structural hurdles in transforming countries from passive technology consumers into active producers.

The mobile-money revolution offers critical historical lessons for assessing whether similar shortcuts work in the current technological era. Developing nations confront deep infrastructural and capital deficits that complicate straightforward adoption models. Sustainable digital transformation demands domestic capacity building rather than mere reliance on external innovations. Regional leaders must evaluate these limitations carefully before committing national resources to imported foundational systems.

What Trump Said at the UN Was Important. What He Didn’t Was Important, Too.

Cfr | Esther Brimmer

U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the United Nations General Assembly for the fifth time, delivering a speech notable for its omissions regarding international cooperation and multilateral development institutions. The administration recently paid $725 million in overdue regular dues and $102 million for peacekeeping, avoiding a General Assembly vote loss, though $4.2

billion remains owed. Against this backdrop, the United States continues to prioritize peace and security frameworks while simultaneously dismissing development assistance, humanitarian response, and regulatory bodies like the World Health Organization and the International Maritime Organization. The Trump administration previously withdrew from the World Health Organization and the UN Human Rights Council while shuttering the U.S. Agency for International Development. Future engagement requires navigating deep Sino-American rivalries and financial strain while recognizing that a restructured United Nations framework remains essential for global governance.

The Guardian view on the future of the UN: more embattled, but more necessary, than ever

The Guardian

The United Nations faces unprecedented institutional strain as outgoing Secretary General António Guterres prepares to step down by 31 December amid rising global conflicts and a deadlocked security council. Donald Trump used his general assembly address to threaten Iran and dismiss international law regarding Venezuela, echoing broader boycotts by leaders including Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Narendra Modi.

Amid these diplomatic fractures and funding deficits, the organization remains a vital forum for smaller states to coordinate multilateral campaigns on climate and security reform. Potential successors like Rebeca Grynspan and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett face an uncertain leadership transition as major powers bide their time. The charter's founding mission to prevent global war endures not through flawless execution, but because the alternative remains far worse.

Drone and Data Center Lessons from the Donbas to the Gulf

National Interest | Henry Rogers

American data centers face escalating physical vulnerabilities as adversaries ingest the lessons of recent drone warfare operations in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf. In the summer of 2026, Ukrainian strikes against commercial giants like Wildberries and Iranian drone attacks disrupting Amazon Web Services facilities demonstrated how low-cost unmanned aerial systems can cripple critical economic nodes.

Because rapid digitization and artificial intelligence demands have driven operators to cluster these facilities in massive, interconnected campuses across Northern Virginia, Atlanta, Santa Clara, and Dallas, they represent concentrated targets vulnerable to coordinated kinetic disruption. Despite the availability of anti-drone sensors and jamming systems, federal regulations severely complicate protective measures. Under Federal Aviation Administration rules, the airspace above private data center campuses remains public domain, rendering it illegal for facility owners to shoot down or interfere with incoming aerial threats. Policymakers must reform these airspace barriers to allow civilian investment in site-defense infrastructure before overseas vulnerabilities replicate domestically.

Palantir, NATO and the Privatisation of Decision Infrastructure

Victoria Calotychos

NATO finalised the acquisition of the Maven Smart System for Allied Command Operations on 25 March 2025, deploying it across headquarters and exercise planning by 2026. This integration highlights a growing institutional challenge where external commercial platforms organise operational data and decision workflows, creating a dependency known as decision sovereignty.

While formal command authority remains with sovereign states, reliance on proprietary architectures for situational awareness and planning can lead to cumulative institutional lock-in. European firms contribute specialized capabilities like drones and simulations, yet these components operate within a foreign-controlled integration layer. As European nations accelerate defense spending amid compressed threat timelines, rapid procurement practices risk entrenching external control over critical digital infrastructure, decoupling formal ownership from practical governance.

The Nuclear AI Red Line: Prediction Is Not Permission

Eurasia Review | Burak Oktenli

Military artificial intelligence must maintain strict engineering boundaries that permanently separate machine prediction from human authorization in nuclear command systems. Although recent security dialogues between United States and Chinese experts at the Brookings Institution and Tsinghua University highlight the urgency of bilateral red lines, software anticipation of human behavior must never substitute for lawful command.

Experimental models such as Centaur illustrate that cognitive software can forecast human choices, while studies in Nature Human Behaviour and Anthropic's agentic-misalignment research demonstrate vulnerabilities to AI persuasion and deceptive behaviors. Consequently, four distinct functions—predicting, recommending, authenticating, and authorizing—must remain isolated to prevent automated systems from misinterpreting delays or forecasts as operational consent. Safeguards should enforce fresh, positive human acts of authorization and guarantee evidence independence across all reporting channels during high-stakes strategic exercises.

Saudi Arabia Faces the Era of Disequilibrium

Csis | Michael Ratney

Saudi Arabia confronts a volatile era of disequilibrium as ongoing regional conflicts and oil volatility threaten its ambitious economic and societal transformation. Driven by young leadership, the kingdom previously leveraged multipolarity and de-escalation to insulate itself from regional turmoil, but escalating wars involving Iran, the Houthis, and shifting U.S.

and Israeli policies have exposed critical vulnerabilities. Destructive attacks on strategic energy infrastructure in the Eastern Province and maritime choke points like the Bab al-Mandab Strait demonstrate the limits of traditional air defenses against asymmetric drone threats. Domestically, the government faces pressure to maintain economic momentum and job creation for a young demographic under 35 to prevent stagnation. To protect its national transformation, Riyadh continues to prioritize diplomatic de-escalation across volatile flashpoints while accelerating investments in renewable energy and alternative export routes designed to mitigate reliance on vulnerable transit corridors.

NATO’s Arctic Surveillance Claims

Geopoliticalmonitor | Meng Kit Tang

Norwegian defense minister Tore O. Sandvik asserted that NATO maintains continuous tracking of Russian submarines exiting the Kola Peninsula, contrasting with cautious statements from Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe spokesperson Col. Martin O’Donnell regarding deep-Atlantic tracking difficulties. This friction highlights the broader challenge of monitoring strategic chokepoints like the Bear Gap.

Allied forces intercepted a Russian Akula-class submarine and GUGI deep-sea submersibles near British infrastructure in April, though full details emerged months later via Reuters. Meanwhile, two undersea cables serving Norway remain severed without formal attribution since January 2022 and April 2024, complicating assessments of subsea vulnerability alongside rising Chinese commercial interest in the Northern Sea Route. Norway plans a new fiber-optic cable to Svalbard by 2028, testing seabed infrastructure security. NATO possesses proven detection capabilities but lacks public proof of continuous custody into the deep Atlantic.

Why the Attack Helicopter is still relevant

The Atlantic Passage

The Atlantic Passage, a Substack publication focusing on geopolitics and military history, returned a "Page not found" error on its hosting platform, failing to load any active posts or articles. This technical disruption prevents access to the site's planned editorial content regarding international conflicts and regional security. The platform's interface still displays navigation menus for thematic sections such as "Ukraine and the War," "Israel, the Middle East," "Conflict in Detail," and "The Big Picture."

These categories indicate the publication's intended focus on contemporary global flashpoints and strategic defense issues. Additionally, the page features standard Substack infrastructure, including subscription prompts, sign-in options, and links to the platform's notes and chat functions. Despite these structural elements, the central repository remains entirely empty, showing only a copyright date of 2026 and a notice that posts failed to load. No articles are currently accessible. Consequently, specific strategic analysis and author contributions remain unavailable on this URL.

Little Venice, Little Sparta: The UAE’s Statecraft Meets The War On Iran

Eurasia Review | Cinzia Bianco

The United Arab Emirates leverages its immense oil wealth, sovereign funds, and strategic position as "Little Venice" and "Little Sparta" to project global influence through commercial connectivity and muscular security. This model faced an existential stress test during the 2026 United States and Israel war with Iran, which shattered the assumption that commercial entanglement with Tehran under an American security umbrella would insulate the state.

Iranian retaliatory strikes targeted airports, ports, data centers, and energy infrastructure to punish the Emirati economy while Washington fought. Concurrently, an open strategic rupture hardened with Saudi Arabia over regional leadership, economic visions, and Red Sea footholds. Despite sustaining over 3,000 projectiles and an August 18 trade freeze, Abu Dhabi is accelerating a "fortified connectivity" framework—building spare supply routes, domestic defense manufacturing, and alternative terminals. Europe can leverage this post-war environment by offering regulatory predictability, protecting vital trade infrastructure, and establishing clear boundaries against militia-tied networks.

When A Paper Tiger Crumbles: The Inevitable Collapse of Bangladesh

Substack | Ashok Awasthi

Post-Hasina Bangladesh faces severe economic instability following efforts by its new leadership to de-link from India by repudiating long-standing power and cargo facilities. An analysis by Viprabuddhi highlights how the nation’s heavy historical over-reliance on the garment sector leaves its fragile economy highly vulnerable as cross-border diplomatic ties rapidly deteriorate.

Lapsing bilateral agreements like the historic Ganga water treaty and attempts to pivot toward Pakistan and China threaten long-term regional stability. Recent Adani Power supply disruptions and constrained access to Indian transit ports for cheap cotton imports further compound Dhaka's compounding economic quagmire. Domestic volatility remains high. The rising influence of virulent Islamist political factions is actively alienating religious minorities and deterring critical private investment. Furthermore, tentative moves to grant operational airfields near the strategic Siliguri Corridor to Beijing risk triggering severe geopolitical backlash from New Delhi. Without rebuilding crucial economic and diplomatic bridges with India, Bangladesh's prospects for sustainable economic recovery remain entirely remote.

Two Nuclear Neighbors Are About to Arm Opposite Sides in Yemen. Here Is Why India Backs the Houthis.

Signal, Not Noise | AJ

Pakistan is steadily moving toward direct military involvement in Yemen under the Mecca Mutual Defence Pact signed in August 2026 with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with manufacturing outputs for Toyota Hilux pickup trucks surging as an indicator of preparations. Islamabad's prospective entry into the regional conflict triggers an immediate strategic realignment for India, which prioritizes the containment and exhaustion of its primary adversary above all other foreign policy preferences.

New Delhi stands to benefit directly from any depletion of Pakistani military resources, personnel, and command attention in a distant theater, reducing pressure along the disputed frontier. Consequently, India's rational imperative shifts toward quietly sustaining the Ansarallah Houthis through intelligence sharing and operational expertise derived from decades of direct conflict. This covert backing bypasses standard diplomatic alignments with Israel and Iran, transforming the Houthis into an asymmetric proxy asset capable of bleeding Pakistan far from Kashmir.

FACT SHEET ON CHINA-MYANMAR-BANGLADESH ECONOMIC CORRIDOR

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Wilhelm Geijer, Joel von Rothkirch, Hoang An Nguyen, Jagannath Panda

China has undertaken several strategic projects to increase its role in the Bay of Bengal region and circumvent the Malacca Strait through the Belt and Road Initiative. These efforts involve substantial investments in port infrastructure and multiple new economic corridors designed to expand Beijing's regional power architecture. One of these vital initiatives is the Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar Economic Corridor, which subsequently evolved into the China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor following Indian disengagement from the cooperative framework.

This evolving economic infrastructure forms a core component of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs research project examining Beijing's expanding power projection across South Asia and the broader Indian Ocean region. These developments directly alter regional connectivity patterns and reshape long-term geopolitical alignments along critical maritime corridors.

Strait up tolls? What a Hormuz precedent means for the world’s waterways

Australian Strategic Policy Institute | Elizabeth Buchanan, Adel Abdel Ghafar

The US–Iran War has triggered negotiations to keep the Strait of Hormuz toll-free, raising concerns that a potential transit fee could establish a dangerous global precedent. This development threatens to disrupt international maritime trade norms and directly impact Australian supply chains. Consequently, regional waterways face unprecedented economic and strategic pressures.

Historically, the dissolution of agreed international laws and maritime principles has accelerated the erosion of free passage. If a Hormuz toll is implemented, it could legitimise similar transit fees in other critical choke points. These include the Malacca Strait, the South China Sea, and the Bering Strait. Global trade faces fragmentation. Such a shift would allow coastal states to monetise sovereign access, fundamentally altering the economics of global shipping. Ultimately, this precedent risks transforming open maritime commons into contested, revenue-generating zones, complicating naval operations, energy security, and resource supply chains worldwide.

How China’s Leader Plans to Win the Future With A.I.

The New York Times | Vivian Wang

Chinese President Xi Jinping is mobilizing state resources to dominate global artificial intelligence development and restructure the domestic economy through advanced robotics and high-end manufacturing. State-led funds poured over $184 billion into Chinese A.I. firms between 2000 and 2023, with government and state-owned banks pledging hundreds of billions more.

Beijing seeks to offset lower private investment compared to the United States, which saw private sources pour $285 billion into the technology in 2025 alone. A dedicated technology park outside Beijing exemplifies this top-down approach, providing tens of millions of dollars in free computing power to local developers. Supported firms produce critical dual-use technologies, including specialized chips designed for nuclear missiles and medical brain implants. Beijing prioritizes state-directed industrial policy. By leveraging centralized resource allocation, China aims to establish artificial intelligence as a lead driver of national competitiveness while maintaining strict administrative and social control over emerging technological capabilities across society.

Gauging the Influence of China’s PLA over the Ruling Junta in Myanmar

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Mark S. Cogan

China provides a critical lifeline for Myanmar's ruling military regime following the 2021 coup, yet this political influence does not extend to the People's Liberation Army, which operates primarily along the shared border. Cross-border trade has diminished between Yunnan and Myanmar administrative regions, while state-sanctioned criminal organizations operating scam center compounds in border areas have created significant regional security challenges.

These pressures prompted Beijing's tacit approval of Operation 1027 in late 2023, an offensive involving 15,000 fighters from ethnic armed organizations. The PLA conducts periodic armed patrols and live-fire exercises through the Southern Theater Command to deter conflict escalation and protect Chinese nationals. Meanwhile, security cooperation and mediation are driven by state officials, such as Special Envoy for Asian Affairs Deng Xijun and Ministry of Public Security representatives, rather than the Central Military Commission. This institutional separation reflects strict Chinese Communist Party control and an effort to avoid the military-commercial entanglement seen in neighboring states.

How to Reach an AI Arms Control Deal With China

Council on Foreign Relations | Chris McGuire

United States AI laboratories currently maintain a six-to-twelve-month lead over Chinese competitors, but growing risks of uncontrolled frontier models are driving calls for a bilateral artificial intelligence safety agreement. Negotiating arms control while two unequal powers actively compete for strategic dominance remains historically unprecedented. Historical precedents like the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty demonstrate that bilateral technology agreements only succeed after the trailing state concludes it cannot win the race.

China currently produces just 1 to 4 percent of its required AI computing power natively, relying on smuggled and remotely accessed American microchips to stay competitive. Beijing must realize it cannot win. Consequently, Washington must aggressively close semiconductor export control loopholes to expand its operational lead prior to enacting domestic safety regulations. Maintaining a decisive technological advantage will ultimately enable unilateral technical verification of Chinese compliance via advanced national technical capabilities without compromising sensitive intelligence infrastructure.

10 Points on Chinese Strategic Approach to India

Newreckk | Staff Writer

China prioritises its eastern maritime domain and the Pacific Ocean as its primary strategic direction to counter the United States, positioning South Asia as a secondary theatre. Beijing views the Indian Ocean through a competitive lens, arguing that New Delhi cooperates with Washington to constrain Chinese maritime access.

Furthermore, Beijing encounters friction within multilateral platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, where Indian resistance challenges Chinese efforts to reshape global governance. Bilaterally, Chinese assessments dismiss India as a minor economic partner representing under three percent of overall trade, while maintaining the China-Pakistan axis primarily to keep New Delhi contained. Beijing leverages regional partnerships across Central Asia, Russia, Iran, and North Korea to deter American power projection globally. Consequently, this asymmetric framework treats India primarily as a secondary obstacle managed through localized containment and multilateral friction.

Saudi Arabia is Losing The War Against the Houthis: Military Pressure, Oil Vulnerability, Fragile Alliances, and the Search for an Exit

Geopolitical Insight

Saudi Arabia faces mounting strategic vulnerabilities as Houthi forces execute deep strikes against energy infrastructure, threatening critical East-West oil pipelines and disrupting crude exports to Europe in October 2026. Crucial maritime chokepoints including Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz remain entirely outside Saudi military control. Alternative export routes through the Suez Canal or Oman’s Port of Sohar fail to mitigate risks to internal refining facilities.

The conflict has exposed the structural limits of Western security guarantees in the Middle East. External allies demonstrate clear reluctance to engage in a prolonged Yemeni campaign. Washington negotiated a separate agreement in Muscat to protect American shipping, while Islamabad deployed 8,000 troops strictly in defensive roles. Meanwhile, Ankara avoids direct intervention, and Tel Aviv limits support to intelligence sharing. Regional alliances are fraying rapidly. Without external intervention or secure infrastructure, Riyadh faces severe economic and operational paralysis.

Mohammed bin Salman: The Spoiled Crown Prince Who Envisions a Kingdom of Fantasies

Geopolitical Insight

Saudi Arabia faces severe economic and strategic vulnerabilities driven by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his unrealized Vision 2030 megaprojects. Riyadh continues to rely heavily on American security guarantees and external alliances with Washington, Tel Aviv, and Abu Dhabi while struggling to manage conflicts in Yemen and navigate deep regional tensions with Iran and the Houthis.

This heavy dependence on external hegemony masks a fragile domestic financial foundation and an unstable leadership style that risks alienating traditional partners. Without establishing direct accommodations with regional adversaries, the kingdom's centralized governance model remains exposed to severe geopolitical shocks. Riyadh must eventually balance its modernization ambitions with the gritty realities of Middle Eastern politics to secure its long-term survival.

Why Are Saudi Arabia and the Houthis at War Again/Still?

Wars and Conflicts of the World

Saudi Arabia intercepted a ballistic missile targeting Riyadh as renewed hostilities escalated between the kingdom and the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen. The conflict stems from a complex history originating in the 1990s with the Zaydi Shiite community's religious identity and the subsequent Sa’dah Insurgency against President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Following the 2011 Arab Spring, Houthi forces captured Sanaa, prompting a Saudi-led military intervention in March 2015 that evolved into a protracted stalemate. Iran supplied the Houthis with advanced missiles and drones, transforming a local guerrilla movement into a force capable of striking infrastructure across the Arabian Peninsula. The current resurgence is driven by Iranian efforts to restrict the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, intertwining the Yemeni conflict with broader Middle Eastern wars and threatening the global economy.

Google’s Empire Under the Pacific

Expeditionary Capitalist | Sean Harper

Google operates over 80,000 kilometers of undersea cable across the Pacific basin, functioning as a critical US strategic communications asset controlled by a private corporation amid intensifying great-power competition. Thirteen distinct cable systems connect 37 landing points across 16 territories, with massive new projects like the 20,354 km Bulikula route expanding network capacity while transitioning away from early international consortium models toward sole corporate ownership.

Satellite constellations such as Starlink provide only a tiny fraction of intercontinental data volume compared to high-capacity subsea lines, leaving island territories vulnerable to prolonged isolation during cable outages. Washington exercises direct oversight over this infrastructure through mandatory National Security Agreements, which grant US authorities a 24-hour kill switch, require domestic network operations centers, and compel the diversification of Asian interconnection points following rejected Hong Kong landing bids. Furthermore, severe maintenance bottlenecks plague the vast basin, leaving only seventeen cable ships available across the entire region to service extensive wet infrastructure vulnerable to natural disasters or hostile interdiction.

Almost unbelievably, the US is planning to pull large numbers of troops out of Europe

Telegraph | Hamish de Bretton-Gordon

United States plans to withdraw 25,000 troops from Europe, following a prior reduction of 5,000 personnel, as Russia contemplates a fresh mobilization involving hundreds of thousands of additional soldiers. This apparent shift in Washington coincides with mounting domestic political pressure in Britain over defense spending, where critics argue that welfare commitments continue to outweigh security requirements.

Moscow is meanwhile intensifying its hybrid campaign across European states through drone incursions, cyberattacks, and sabotage operations designed to test Western resolve. Ukraine demonstrates continued battlefield resilience around Lyman alongside large-scale drone strikes reaching Moscow, proving that Russian military power remains susceptible to degradation. Western hesitation risks undermining credible deterrence just as the Kremlin calculates that time favors its protracted war economy. Maintaining regional security requires consistent political will, robust capabilities, and steadfast alliance commitments to prevent further strategic erosion across the continent.

Every American Aircraft Lost or Damaged During the Iran War

Real Clear Defense | Ian Ellis-Jones

The United States military faces documented losses and structural damage to its airpower assets following direct engagements during the Iran war. Newly compiled assessments from the Pentagon and Congressional Budget Office, integrated alongside open-source intelligence, provide a comprehensive accounting of the aircraft impacted throughout the theater. These detailed visualizations quantify the attrition sustained by American tactical aviation and support platforms operating within hostile airspace.

The accumulation of these losses highlights the operational friction and attrition risks inherent in modern high-intensity aerospace campaigns against sophisticated regional missile and air defense networks. Consequently, planners must contend with the compounding costs of aircraft attrition when sustaining protracted air operations over heavily contested territories.

Every American Aircraft Lost Or Damaged During The Iran War, Visualized

TWZ | Ian Ellis-Jones

United States military aircraft losses and damage during Operation Epic Fury against Iran have exceeded $3.3 billion, according to recent Pentagon Lead Inspector General and Congressional Budget Office reports. Unmanned aerial vehicles bore the primary burden, with at least 47 MQ-9A Reaper drones destroyed alongside an MQ-4C Triton and an MQ-1.

This rapid attrition drastically reduced active inventory. Operational strain extended to crewed fleets, resulting in the destruction or crippling of two KC-135 Stratotankers, four F-15E Strike Eagles, an E-3G Sentry, two MC-130J Commando IIs, four MH-6 Little Birds, and multiple helicopters. A combat search and rescue mission deep inside Iranian territory alone cost over $400 million in lost aircraft. Furthermore, the conflict has depleted between one-half and two-thirds of critical U.S. air defense missile inventories, including Patriot, THAAD, and Standard Missile stockpiles. Theater commanders warn this expenditure severely compromises combat readiness for potential Pacific conflicts, requiring at least five years to replenish industrial reserves.

Daily Memo: Fallout of Tightening US Sanctions on Iran

Geopolitical Futures

Several countries have suspended flights operated by Iranian airlines following a U.S. announcement that all Iranian air operators would be shut down on Sept. 23. Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Oman are among the regional nations that have canceled flights as part of tightening U.S. sanctions targeting companies continuing commercial operations with Tehran.

This aviation clampdown serves as an immediate litmus test for secondary enforcement, measuring how effectively Washington can compel third-party compliance through extraterritorial economic pressure. Aviation restrictions isolate Iran further, disrupting regional transport corridors and forcing neighboring governments to navigate escalating secondary compliance pressures. These sweeping sanctions underscore Washington's persistent reliance on aviation blockades as an extraterritorial instrument to enforce economic isolation on Tehran without direct military engagement.

American power, AI and a walkout - key moments from Trump's UN speech

BBC | Sarah Smith, Bernd Debusmann Jr, Khashayar Joneidi, Nada Tawfik

US President Donald Trump delivered an address at the United Nations General Assembly, asserting an "America First" foreign policy backed by military force. Trump threatened the rapid annihilation of Iran if Tehran fails to negotiate a bilateral peace agreement, while predicting potential progress following the November midterm elections.

The speech underscored a return to unilateral coercive diplomacy. During the address, Cuba's delegation walked out after Trump described the island nation as a failing state under maximum economic and political pressure. Beyond high-stakes diplomatic warnings, Washington finalized a tripartite security agreement with Denmark and Greenland. The pact authorises two new American military bases in Greenland to reinforce NATO's northern deterrence posture in the Arctic region. It resolved months of alliance friction. Additionally, Trump rejected government regulation of artificial intelligence, advocating instead for unrestricted technological development under the rebranded moniker "Super Intelligence."

Europe’s new AI edge? The emerging application layer opportunity

McKinsey | Julien Gagnon, Nick Padgett, Ruben Schaubroeck, Amy Tong, Karyna Iusupova, Kath Easthope, Phill Robinson

European technology companies are positioning themselves to capture significant economic value by focusing on the AI application layer as enterprises shift from model experimentation to workflow redesign. Proprietary funding analysis from Dealroom, PitchBook, and Gain reveals that European start-ups focused on the application layer reached 44 percent of comparable US funding levels in the first half of 2026, up from 11 percent in 2018, while vertical AI applications surged to 67 percent of US levels.

North America attracted 71 percent of the €835 billion raised between January 2025 and June 2026, compared to Europe's 10 percent and Asia's 16 percent. Structural enablers include reversing talent flows, proactive university commercialization, corporate co-investment, and patient sovereign capital. High-performing start-ups utilize five operating practices, including AI-accelerated R&D velocity and value-based commercial models, to navigate a capital-constrained environment. Founders must deeply embed products into enterprise systems of record, specialize in industrial ecosystems, and pursue multimarket approaches.

Understanding Russia’s Role in Latin America

Rand | Elina Treyger, Samantha Perez Davila

Russia maintains active engagement across Latin America and the Caribbean despite facing sweeping international isolation and stretched resources following its February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Deepening diplomatic and strategic ties with key regional partners help Moscow marshal Global South support for its anti-Western vision and unlawful territorial claims.

This regional activism demonstrates that ongoing military commitments do not preclude Moscow from projecting influence far from home. Opportunistic diplomatic maneuvers across the Western Hemisphere concurrently challenge U.S. security interests. Washington must consequently evaluate these regional activities holistically alongside concurrent Chinese and Iranian influence. Comprehensive threat assessments must also account for direct connections between hemispheric developments and domestic U.S. security. Policymakers face compounding strategic friction as Moscow leverages bilateral partnerships to counter Western pressure.

Why Is Russia Not Bombing Kiev Into Oblivion?

Zlatti 71

Russian military forces deployed in Ukraine field over 600,000 troops, thousands of tanks, and advanced missile stockpiles while launching up to 144 strike drones per day. Moscow's strategic adaptation centers on industrial-scale drone production, deep artillery superiority firing up to 20,000 shells daily, and modernized precision systems designed to defeat Western air defenses.

This massive conventional capacity raises strategic questions regarding why Russian forces have not leveled the Ukrainian capital. Instead of total urban destruction, Russian high-command operations leverage weapons like the Iskander-M, hypersonic Kinzhal, and Mach 10 Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile as tactical instruments and strategic signaling mechanisms against European NATO allies. Russian tactics favor long-term attrition over rapid total destruction. Meanwhile, domestic factories like Uralvagonzavod produce 300 T-90M Proryv tanks annually, outstripping European industrial output. Consequently, Western air defenses struggle against retuned Iskander guidance software, while Russian forces continue leveraging economic resilience and weaponized mass to wear down Ukrainian positions.

Military Review, September-October 2026, v. 106, no. 5

  Military Review, September-October 2026, v. 106, no. 5 

• The Benning Revolution 2.0: Upgrading Army PME to Close the Adaptation Gap
• Command Without Control: Mission Command in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
• The Army’s Work-Life Balance Problem: Research with Senior Leaders
• Thinking Differently About Army Suicide: A Social Diagnosis
• When Delivery Success Fails: Why Time Must Define Authority in Military Networks
• The Shape of the Fight: Using LiDAR and Fractal Geometry to Quantify Urban Complexity
• The Assurance War: How Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United States Are Facing Digital Insurgency
• Artificial Intelligence and Professional Authorship: Ownership of Thought When the Machine Is Off
• Understanding Death Is the Best Way to Prevent It: Postmortem Data Is a Strategic Enabler for the Joint Force
• The Hidden Casualty Load: Integrating Dental Emergencies into Large-Scale Combat Operations Planning
• Operational Art in LSCO: Forging Deterrence by Denial on the Amazon Frontier
• Tradition and Transformation: Forging Strategically Minded, Globally Competent Officers
• Intellectually Nurturing the Warfighters the Nation Needs
• Remembering 9/11

Economic War via the Destruction of Energy Infrastucture

Delwinstrategy

Russia is executing a multidimensional strategy to collapse Ukraine's economy by systematically targeting critical energy infrastructure, including 750kV substations and nuclear output capacity. This economic warfare aims to overcome stubborn domestic political resistance and force a favorable regime change through population exodus, enterprise shutdowns, and unbearable reconstruction costs.

European financial and military assistance currently amounts to 46 percent of the Ukrainian state budget, yet a massive uncovered financing gap of $25 to $40 billion per annum looms for 2026 as grid damage erodes tax revenues. Ukraine faces a severe generational deficit and lacks the deep-strike capacity to inflict reciprocal damage on the Russian economy. Moscow calculates that protracted financial exhaustion, combined with potential political fatigue across key European partner countries ahead of 2027 elections, will compel Kyiv to accept unfavorable terms regarding security guarantees and foreign troop presences.

The Stalemate With Iran Is Not Sustainable

Foreign Affairs | Richard Haass, Carolyn Kissane

Iran and the United States have engaged in a six-month war that has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking twenty percent of global liquefied natural gas transit and a higher share of oil trade. While this conflict has triggered global energy shortages and price increases, both nations have avoided devastating attacks on critical Gulf energy infrastructure.

This precarious operational equilibrium has allowed international markets to temporarily stabilize despite severe supply disruptions. The current stalemate is highly unstable. Although Washington and Tehran have restricted their targeting to prevent total economic collapse, the underlying geopolitical tensions remain unresolved. A comprehensive diplomatic strategy is urgently required to end the hostilities before an accidental miscalculation triggers catastrophic infrastructure damage. Ultimately, the prolonged closure of this vital maritime chokepoint threatens to exhaust global energy buffers, disrupt international supply chains, and trigger a direct, highly destructive military confrontation between the primary combatants.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says basic math skills ‘don’t matter’ in AI era

The American Bazaar | Nileena Sunil

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang defended the decline of basic mathematical skills in the artificial intelligence era during a recent interview on the Ezra Klein Show. Addressing a Chinese study of 26,000 students that linked early AI adoption to deteriorating cognitive performance, Huang argued that losing traditional skills like long division and multiplication tables does not matter.

Basic math is being forgotten. This perspective reflects a broader industry shift toward systems thinking, where automated tools manage routine calculations to free human cognitive capacity for higher-level problem-solving. However, critics warn that relying on AI companions and automated systems degrades essential intellectual dexterity and social skills among younger demographics. Despite these concerns, the rapid advancement of large language models continues to accelerate automation. Huang recently declared the arrival of artificial general intelligence following OpenAI's launch of GPT-6 Astra. This technological milestone intensifies the global debate over cognitive offloading and long-term educational standards.

Can AI Be Regulated?

Foreign Policy | Cameron Abadi, Adam Tooze

The U.S. federal government faces intensifying public pressure to regulate artificial intelligence, exposing a deep rift within Silicon Valley over the technology's catastrophic risks. While closed-model developers OpenAI and Anthropic advocate for federal oversight to pace the frontier, open-source proponents like Meta and Nvidia reject new strictures. This division reflects divergent commercial strategies, where closed-system advocates seek to mitigate liability and secure national champion status, while hardware providers aim to maximize compute demand.

Currently, AI spending by hyper-scalers runs between $150 billion and $200 billion per quarter, driving 36 percent of all U.S. business investment. A market reset remains a distinct possibility. Retrospective financial compensation under standard negligence law cannot address extinction-level events or systemic financial instability. Pockets of technical proficiency exist within DARPA and the National Security Agency, but keeping pace with rapid machine learning developments remains a daunting challenge for federal regulators.

Our Generals Are Not Even Good at Tactics: A Hard-Hitting Reply to Gary Anderson

Donvandergriff | Donald Vandergriff

United States military general and flag officers suffer from deep systemic failures rooted in careerism and risk aversion rather than true tactical excellence. American military leadership exhibits institutional deficiencies that stem from the rigid 'up-or-out' promotion model. This legacy system rewards conformity, PowerPoint presentations, and upward management over actual tactical, operational, and strategic adaptability under stress.

Restructuring the officer corps requires dividing personnel into distinct command, staff, and technical tracks evaluated through rigorous wargames and tactical decision games. Replacing the conveyor belt of promotion with performance-based retention and downsizing headquarters by 25 to 40 percent would restore mission command and moral character. Military institutions must cultivate true strength of character, termed Charakterstärke, to prioritize operational reality over careerist compliance and ensure combat effectiveness across future warfare environments.

Military-Backed Militias Reemerge in Myanmar's Civil War

The Jamestown Foundation | Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan

The Myanmar military’s decision to revive the Pyusawhti militia to counter pro-democracy resistance forces following the 2021 military coup has remained an understudied aspect of Myanmar’s civil war, as the overstretched military relies on these locally armed groups in Bamar-dominated regions. These armed militias function as vigilantes and intelligence gatherers, deliberately using tactics such as arson, extortion, forced conscription, and targeted killings against non-combatants to spread fear and sever insurgent supply lines.

Reconstituted across Mandalay and various townships in regions such as Sagaing, Magway, and Mandalay, the militia draws its ranks from military veterans, retired civil servants, Ma Ba Tha monks, and supporters of the Union Solidarity and Development Party. Operating as auxiliaries to the Tatmadaw, these groups support the Four Cuts strategy by maintaining constant surveillance, manning village cordons, and enforcing conscription. As long as the military continues to rely on proxy violence rather than negotiated solutions, the cycle of displacement, fear, and retribution is likely to persist across Myanmar’s rural heartland.

When Technology Rewrites the Army: Russia, Ukraine and the New Art of War

Chandragupta | KAUTILYA THE CONTEMPLATOR

Weapon systems in the Ukraine conflict are changing faster than the battlefield, forcing both Russia and Ukraine to transition from tactical improvisation to institutional military reorganization. Ukraine created its Unmanned Systems Forces in 2024, followed by Russia establishing its Unmanned Systems Troops in 2025, turning drones from distributed capabilities into permanent military institutions.

Persistent UAV surveillance and electronic warfare have created extreme battlefield transparency, rendering large armor concentrations vulnerable and making operational breakthroughs elusive through attrition alone. This modern structural adaptation mirrors the 1950s Soviet creation of the Strategic Rocket Forces under Marshal Kirill Moskalenko, when intercontinental ballistic missiles demanded a dedicated institutional framework rather than integration into existing aviation or artillery branches. While technological advantage remains finite as adversaries develop rapid countermeasures, establishing dedicated training schools, specialist officer corps, and procurement systems provides a cumulative organizational advantage designed to systematically generate continuous military adaptations.

Command Failure, Not Combat Defeat: How Bab al-Mandab Fell to the Houthis, and Iran Gained a Second Strait

The Horizon Brief | Ibrahim Jalal

On September 9, 2026, Houthi forces captured Al-Mocha and surrounding coastal territory along Yemen's Western Axis, effectively securing control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The strategic collapse resulted from intelligence infiltration, decapitating strike operations at Jabal al-Nar, and a forged withdrawal command broadcast via radio, SMS, and cloned voice audio across fragmented Yemeni government forces.

Rather than superior combat power, structural command-and-control breakdown enabled a rapid pullout, allowing a modest Houthi detachment to occupy Al-Mocha without resistance. Consequently, Tehran secured a second maritime leverage point alongside the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi forces expanded their sea-denial footprint across Mayyun, Zuqar, and Huniash islands using direct fire, explosive uncrewed vessels, and naval mines. Command failure enabled this disastrous collapse. This control alters Red Sea shipping security while granting the Houthis immense political and economic leverage in Yemen's stalled conflict. Moving forward, Houthi commanders are likely to leverage these gains for further operational expansion towards Marib and Shabwa before September 21.

Drones are Overrated

Operational Art of War

Unmanned aerial vehicles do not represent a revolutionary military affairs shift in modern conflict, despite widespread claims regarding their battlefield impact. The historical evolution of military technology demonstrates that true revolutions require systems to be simultaneously cheap, lethal, and robust. Civilian off-the-shelf quadcopters deployed in Ukraine deliver surveillance and improvised munitions capability at low cost, yet their operational utility remains constrained by vulnerability to countermeasures.

Comprehensive military analysis reveals that incremental weapons improvements consistently integrate into broader all-arms packages rather than single-handedly altering warfare. Previous historical precedents, such as the introduction of the Halberd or HMS Dreadnought, fundamentally restructured battlefield dynamics by rendering entire weapon classes entirely obsolete. Modern COTS drones function as supplementary tactical tools rather than transforming foundational military architecture. Continued technological adaptation on contemporary battlefields will likely force these systems to evolve within existing defensive frameworks.