Seth G. Jones
Four years ago, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, resulting in the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. Initially conceived as a rapid operation to overthrow Kyiv, the conflict has evolved into a prolonged, high-intensity war that is reshaping European security. Despite substantial human and economic costs, Ukraine has maintained its defense with sustained Western support, while Russia has mobilized its economy and society for an extended confrontation. Although the war remains unresolved and significant uncertainties persist, its fourth anniversary provides a moment to reflect on its profound impacts on regional security, transatlantic cohesion, military technology, and the global balance of power.
The Russian economy has held up better than some expected following Western economic sanctions, which the United States and other Western countries imposed after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. But Russia’s economy is increasingly showing signs of strain, and long-term productivity looks bleak. The country receives limited foreign investment and is unable to borrow on international markets. To finance the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has borrowed at home and raised taxes. It spends roughly half its budget on the armed forces, the military-industrial complex, domestic security, and debt servicing.
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