Nearly a week into the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, which resulted in the assassination of several senior political and military leaders early on, the Assembly of Experts in Iran elected Mojtaba Khamenei in a secret ballot as the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, succeeding his late father, Ali Khamenei. The latest assault marks the second time that Iran has been subjected to a joint US-Israeli attack in less than a year. The latest confrontation follows the collapse of a potential settlement that had emerged during negotiations held in February under the mediation of Oman.
The United States raised the bar of its conditions for reaching a “deal”, demanding the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme according to a “zero enrichment” principle on Iranian soil, the removal of highly enriched uranium from the country, and the imposition of restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile programme as well as an end to its support for regional allies.[1] Tehran viewed these conditions as an attempt to translate the outcome of the previous war into strategic concessions that would undermine the core of its security and defence doctrine. The ongoing conflict raises questions about how Tehran intends to manage sustained military pressure, as well as the possibility of another round of fighting in the future if the current bout does not produce a clear outcome. Much will depend on the scope of US demands and on Iran’s own conception of the regional security equation and of its nuclear and missile programmes.
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