EYCK FREYMANN
The writer is a Hoover fellow at Stanford University and author of the forthcoming book ‘Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China’ Iran did not need to sink a single tanker to shut down a fifth of the world’s oil supply. It took only a handful of missile and drone strikes to persuade insurers to pull coverage from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Within days, the vital energy chokepoint was functionally closed.
So far, the market is still refusing to bear the risk — despite Washington’s efforts to backstop reinsurance coverage, which would depend on US Navy escorts. This is a replicable playbook. China is a vastly more capable actor than Iran that could use a more sophisticated version of the same economic blackmail in the Taiwan Strait. The US and its allies should start preparing accordingly.
No comments:
Post a Comment