The Iran War Isn’t a Rehearsal for a Taiwan War with China — It’s a Stress Test

Andrew Latham

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If the United States cannot secure a clean victory over Iran — a country with no blue-water navy, no fifth-generation air force, and an economy smaller than the state of Texas — what hope does it have against China? Thirty days into the campaign against Iran, with THAAD stocks drawn down and precision munitions being spent faster than they can be replaced, the question has more bite than Washington would like to admit.

It is, however, the wrong question. The campaign against Iran has achieved real successes — but degrading Iran and denying China a successful amphibious seizure of Taiwan are not the same problem. Different problems, different operational logics. The Iran war is not a rehearsal for Taiwan.