Eurasia Review | He Yan
Following the U.S. military's naval blockade on Iran in April 2026, China-Iran railway trade surged, with freight trains from Xi’an to Tehran increasing to one every 3-4 days and monthly cargo volume soaring to 400,000–500,000 tons, including Iranian crude oil. This exposed the critical vulnerability of China's trans-Eurasian transport system, constrained by limited rail capacity, drastically escalated shipping costs (up 40%, $7,000/40-foot container), and unidirectional trade flows. Existing northern (Russia) and southern (Iran, Turkey) corridors face geopolitical risks, while maritime routes are vulnerable to chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. The Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan (TUT) corridor emerges as a strategic third path, bypassing Russia and southern Iran. It offers geopolitical stability, shorter transit distances, and interfaces with routes like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, enhancing China's leverage in the Middle East and providing Central Asian countries with external connectivity independent of Russia. Challenges include coordinating diverse transit countries, requiring institutional innovation.
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