Europe's energy system is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by geopolitics, security concerns, and climate objectives. The EU has adopted a dual strategy to strengthen internal connectivity while deliberately reducing exposure to high-risk external dependencies, particularly on Russia, fundamentally reshaping post-2022 energy policy. Despite reframing renewable energy as a foundation for industrial strategy and geopolitical resilience, Europe’s grids remain underdeveloped, threatening EU credibility across climate, competitiveness, and security. The pursuit of energy independence through REPowerEU has advanced unevenly, with the EU remaining a significant buyer of Russian LNG and pipeline gas. Regional dynamics highlight tensions between independence and connectivity, exemplified by the Nordic-Baltic states' success versus Hungary and Slovakia's "malignant connectivity." Undersea infrastructure represents a critical vulnerability, susceptible to disruption due to physical exposure and weak legal protection. The report recommends strengthening regional connectivity, capacity coordination, and infrastructure protection, including closing legal gaps on undersea assets and tightening sanctions against Russia, alongside national-level actions like recognizing Finland as an anchor partner and integrating hybrid threats into energy planning.
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