19 June 2026

Deadlocked Wars: How Major Powers Misread the Regions They Attacked

The New York Times  |  Neil MacFarquhar

President Trump and Vladimir V. Putin both resist acknowledging that ostensibly weaker powers, Ukraine and Iran, have fought them to a stalemate, forcing reliance on negotiations for capitulation not secured in battle. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky derided Putin for misjudging Ukraine's full-scale resistance, stating he "did not expect full-scale resistance from Ukraine, and you did not foresee that things would go this far."

Similarly, Iran's Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf threatened further missile barrages against Israel last week, following attacks on Hezbollah, asserting Iran's response "will not change" until trust is restored. Analysts suggest major powers misread the regions they attacked by projecting their own centralized views onto these countries. This recalcitrance reflects a profound lack of trust, stymying progress in two wars currently in stasis, trapping larger nations in costly confrontations. The smaller countries' robust pushback against a "might makes right" mentality highlights the strategic miscalculations by the United States and Russia regarding regional dynamics and local resolve.

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