The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially declared El Niño conditions are under way in the tropical Pacific, marked by sharply rising sea surface temperatures. Many forecasts predict a "super" El Niño, potentially among the strongest since 1950, with a 63% chance of a very strong event during November-January.
This natural Pacific weather pattern, combined with human-caused warming, is expected to bring another record-hot year, likely in 2027, causing widespread disruption to weather, food supplies, and economies. Prof. Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office emphasizes this El Niño is "riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming," suggesting unprecedented regional temperatures. A strong El Niño typically lifts global air temperatures by 0.2C. Disruption is most acute in the tropics, increasing flooding risks in northern Peru, southern Ecuador, East Africa, Central Asia, and the southern US. Conversely, drought and wildfire risks rise across Australia, Indonesia, and northern South America, impacting agriculture and global food stocks. El Niño also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes. Japan's Meteorological Agency (JMA) agrees, expecting conditions to last into autumn.
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