China is actively preparing to control the succession of the next Dalai Lama, leveraging the 14th Dalai Lama Tenzin Gyatso's recent knee replacement surgery at 91 as an alarm bell for the Tibetan diaspora. The officially atheist Chinese Communist Party (CCP) insists his reincarnation must be "approved by the central government," a policy reiterated by Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning.
This assertion follows the 1995 abduction of the Dalai Lama's choice for Panchen Lama, replaced by a state-backed figure, revealing Beijing's deep anxiety over its claim to Tibet. The Dalai Lama has decreed his successor will be reborn in a "free" country, potentially female, while China plans a state-sanctioned candidate from a golden urn. This spiritual succession is a critical flash point in a struggle for influence over a faith practiced by almost 500 million people, threatening to fracture the Tibetan exile movement and co-opt the Dalai Lama's moral authority. The Tibetan Central Administration (CTA) and the Gaden Phodrang Trust are cementing ties with democratic nations and planning a legitimate succession, with U.S. government support for the succession as a private spiritual matter.
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