Western analysts' assessment that Russia is losing the Ukraine war due to significant casualties, estimated at 1.4 million since February 2022 with 400,000 to 450,000 dead, and advances measured in tens of meters daily, constitutes a dangerous category error. This perspective, which focuses on efficiency, overlooks Russia's historical approach to warfare, exemplified by the Soviets' ability to take Berlin despite 11 million casualties.
Russia, having failed its initial "dash for Kyiv," is now engaged in a war of pure exhaustion, where Moscow measures Western endurance while Washington measures Russian efficiency. The critical determinant of the conflict's outcome is whether Russia can sustain its current rate of expenditure and losses longer than Ukraine can maintain its defenses or the West can sustain its commitment and patience, before Ukraine runs out of men or the West runs out of patience.
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