How a U.S. Ground Operation in Iran Could Unfold

Foreign Policy | John Haltiwanger

United States ground operations in Iran would likely unfold through highly targeted, limited raids rather than a large-scale military invasion, according to assessments from military experts analyzing potential conflict scenarios. These localized operations would focus on key strategic assets, avoiding the massive troop deployments and prolonged occupation associated with a full-scale campaign.

This operational framework responds to the complex security environment of the Middle East, where direct escalation risks triggering a wider regional war. The strategic discussion occurs amidst broader geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, U.S. foreign policy transitions, and debates surrounding a potential second presidential term for Donald Trump. While a massive ground invasion remains highly improbable due to immense logistical and political hurdles, localized maritime or aerial incursions targeting critical infrastructure remain key contingency options. Ultimately, any ground actions would be designed to achieve limited tactical objectives, such as degrading specific military capabilities or securing vital shipping lanes, rather than attempting regime change.

Comment

Shifting focus to localised raids in the Persian Gulf represents a major doctrinal departure for US Central Command. This transition reflects lessons from the Millennium Challenge 2002 war game, which exposed the vulnerability of large joint forces to asymmetric littoral tactics. In these narrow waters, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy fast attack craft and land-based anti-ship missiles present a severe threat to capital ships. Consequently, modern Pentagon planning prioritises standoff precision strikes over sustained ground campaigns on the Iranian mainland.

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