The Impossible Middle East

Foreign Affairs  |  Dina Esfandiary, Becca Wasser, Ziad Daoud

The United States and Israel entered a major war against Iran on February 28, 2026, triggering severe economic and military disruption across the Middle East. Iranian drone and missile strikes have continuously targeted regional military bases, critical energy infrastructure, and vital water desalination plants. Commercial shipping lanes face severe disruption.

Iranian naval strikes in the Strait of Hormuz have paralyzed primary maritime ports, while recurring attacks force regional airports and oil refineries to repeatedly pause operations. This systemic targeting of energy and maritime assets reflects a shift toward counter-value economic warfare designed to impose severe regional costs. Despite six months of sustained diplomatic negotiations, Washington and Tehran remain poised to continue military hostilities. The ongoing conflict imperils Persian Gulf energy exports, strains global supply chains, and threatens broader strategic stability. With critical infrastructure sustaining cumulative damage, regional state actors face escalating geoeconomic vulnerabilities with no viable political solution.

Comment

The Iranian campaign against commercial transit in the Strait of Hormuz illustrates the severe strategic trade-off between power projection and critical escort logistics for the U.S. Fifth Fleet. Concentrating naval air assets on offensive strike missions against inland launch sites leaves surface combatants in the Persian Gulf stretched thin across defensive escort duty. This dual-tasking dilutes missile inventory availability for carrier strike group defence while exposing littoral energy infrastructure to persistent low-cost attrition strikes.

The resulting deficit in air defence coverage forces commercial operators to recalculate insurance risk independently of Western naval guarantees. Over time, this dynamic erodes maritime deterrence around the Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz, forcing Gulf energy exporters to explore costly overland pipeline workarounds that bypass primary naval chokepoints entirely.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the U.S. Fifth Fleet prioritises inland strike operations over maritime escort missions in the Strait of Hormuz, which factor will dictate long-term Persian Gulf energy security — regional overland pipeline capacity or private maritime insurance sustainability?

The available evidence points toward maritime insurance sustainability as the more immediate critical vulnerability for regional energy flow. While overland bypass pipelines offer partial relief, their limited throughput cannot absorb total Persian Gulf crude volumes if commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains uninsurable. Consequently, private risk pricing will dictate regional export continuity long before physical pipeline infrastructure can adapt.

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