Why America Needs the US-Saudi Nuclear Deal

National Interest  |  Paul J. Saunders

The United States civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia represents a critical strategic initiative to expand American technological leverage in the Middle East while countering rising Russian and Chinese influence. By accepting conditional Saudi uranium enrichment under Nonproliferation Treaty rights, Washington aims to secure commercial reactor exports and service contracts spanning 60 to 80 years.

Moscow currently dominates international nuclear commerce through Rosatom—which holds 40 percent of global enrichment capacity and 200 billion dollars in foreign orders—while Beijing aggressively expands its 37-reactor domestic building program for export markets. Rejecting the bilateral pact over enrichment provisions risks driving Riyadh into state-backed nuclear partnerships with geopolitical rivals that offer subsidized financing and minimal safeguards. Ultimately, maintaining an active civil nuclear presence grants Washington vital operational visibility into Saudi facilities, supporting domestic manufacturing supply chains while securing long-term nonproliferation leverage that walking away from negotiations would permanently forfeit.

Comment

The contraction of Western commercial reactor exports stems directly from a diminished domestic capacity for heavy nuclear forgings. Forging ultra-heavy reactor pressure vessels for designs like the Westinghouse AP1000 requires specialised industrial infrastructure that cannot be sustained on domestic utility orders alone. Securing foreign build contracts provides the steady throughput necessary to maintain qualified engineering talent and certified manufacturing supply chains.

Without continuous export demand, Western industrial suppliers face prohibitive capital costs when upgrading facilities for emerging small modular reactor technologies. By contrast, Rosatom maintains uninterrupted production cycles for its VVER-1200 pressure vessels across Egyptian and Turkish build sites, anchoring a self-sustaining industrial supply chain. Consequently, the long-term manufacturing viability of the AP1000 supply chain depends on securing foreign anchor deployments to maintain parity with state-backed Russian casting facilities.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which carries greater weight in determining long-term civil nuclear market dominance — the availability of sovereign financing structures offered alongside Rosatom's VVER-1200, or the supply-chain integration provided by Western platforms such as the Westinghouse AP1000?

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