Saudi Arabia faces severe economic and strategic vulnerabilities driven by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his unrealized Vision 2030 megaprojects. Riyadh continues to rely heavily on American security guarantees and external alliances with Washington, Tel Aviv, and Abu Dhabi while struggling to manage conflicts in Yemen and navigate deep regional tensions with Iran and the Houthis.
This heavy dependence on external hegemony masks a fragile domestic financial foundation and an unstable leadership style that risks alienating traditional partners. Without establishing direct accommodations with regional adversaries, the kingdom's centralized governance model remains exposed to severe geopolitical shocks. Riyadh must eventually balance its modernization ambitions with the gritty realities of Middle Eastern politics to secure its long-term survival.
Vision 2030 relies heavily on sovereign wealth allocations from the Public Investment Fund, yet declining hydrocarbon windfalls and scaled-back initiatives like the Mukaab megaproject reveal the limits of state-directed capital injection. Centralising decision-making inside the Royal Court removes institutional feedback loops, mirroring the structural vulnerabilities visible during historical autocracies where dissent was systematically suppressed.
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