5 March 2026

Khamenei is dead. Regime change will be much harder.

Robert A. Pape

President Donald Trump triumphantly announced on Saturday that Israeli and US strikes had killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was the biggest target in a “decapitation” mission that also reportedly killed a significant number of top Iranian regime figures.

When presidents order airstrikes aimed at debilitating an enemy’s leadership and forcing political change, the logic feels compelling: Strike senior figures. Destroy command nodes. Shock the system. Avoid a costly ground invasion. Bend the regime’s behavior from the air.

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