6 April 2026

Tehran Is Setting a Trap for Trump

Ravi Agrawal

One of the most striking elements of the ongoing war in the Middle East is how a severely damaged and depleted Iranian military has still managed to hold the world economy hostage. In doing so, Tehran’s new leadership is exerting pressure on the United States to either escalate or change course. But as the costs keep mounting for Iran, how long can it continue down that path? Who are its current leaders, and how are they thinking about an endgame in the current conflict?

On the latest episode of FP Live, I put those questions to Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group and an analyst with extensive contacts with Iranian lawmakers. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page or download the free FP Live podcast. What follows here is a condensed and lightly edited

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