The U.S. Has More Leverage In Iraq Than Inks

Eurasia Review | James Durso

As U.S. forces prepare to leave Iraq by 30 September 2026, Washington must transition from military control to leveraging economic power, financial systems, and intelligence cooperation under the 2008 U.S.–Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement. Maintaining stability requires avoiding a forced ultimatum over Iran-aligned militias or an impossible choice between Washington and Tehran, drawing the line solely at parallel illicit military structures rather than trade or energy imports.

While Iraqi banks depend heavily on the international dollar system and U.S. financial restrictions demonstrated considerable sway in 2026, attempting to instantly disarm integrated political militias risks igniting civil conflict reminiscent of the 2003 army disbandment. The winning formula centers on U.S. withdrawal paired with Iraqi sovereignty, foreign direct investment, discreet financial leverage, and gradual, Iraqi-led militia reform rather than external coercion. Preserving long-term American influence in Baghdad ultimately requires accepting sovereign independence over direct intervention.

What Franklin Roosevelt Understood About Military Leadership

Real Clear Defense | Edward Farley Aldrich

The United States Army is losing its senior leadership amid high-level departures, raising critical questions about civilian oversight and military advice. Recent resignations and removals under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth highlight tensions over modernization and readiness that echo historical friction during wartime governance. Franklin D. Roosevelt successfully navigated such friction during World War II by deliberately selecting strong, independent advisers like Secretary of War Henry L.

Stimson and Army Chief of Staff George C. Marshall. Marshall famously disagreed with Roosevelt before a major decision in 1938 yet was still appointed chief of staff a year later, establishing a functional boundary of unvarnished counsel combined with absolute obedience after decisions were finalized. This historical partnership demonstrates that effective leadership requires presidents and civilian chiefs to welcome dissenting military judgment rather than cultivate deference. Fostering an environment where expert disagreement does not end careers remains vital for strategic success.

How Putin Escalates

Foreign Affairs | Andrei Kolesnikov

President Vladimir Putin secured a supermajority for the United Russia party in parliamentary elections through compulsory voting mechanisms, standardized military ballots, and the pre-election removal of the antiwar Yabloko party. These engineered electoral outcomes mark a new stage in Russia's confrontation with Ukraine and the West, institutionalizing tighter internal control.

The ruling party's dominance relies on bureaucratic compliance across budget-dependent organizations and corporations, ensuring political consolidation ahead of external escalation. Compulsory voting practices within law enforcement agencies and newly integrated territories reinforced the regime's grip on the legislative process. These controlled electoral dynamics reflect a systematic elimination of political opposition, cementing an authoritarian domestic architecture to sustain protracted conflict. The suppression of legal dissent demonstrates how domestic political sterilization directly underpins external aggression, leaving no viable institutional channels for opposition forces.

Russia Trying to Replace Starlink

The Jamestown Foundation | John C. K. Daly

Russia is accelerating the deployment of its Rassvet satellite constellation via Soyuz-2.1b rockets to replace Starlink terminals previously used for drone strikes and communications. Developed by Bureau 1440 under the Ministry of Digital Development, the low-orbit network requires hundreds of operational spacecraft by 2030 to secure military and civilian broadband coverage.

This indigenous program encounters severe industrial constraints and orbital failures, with initial deployment setbacks including inactive propulsion systems and reentered spacecraft. Ukraine is actively countering the initiative through diplomatic appeals to the International Telecommunication Union and military targeting of Russian space infrastructure. Meanwhile, military analysts debate the constellation's current operational impact on frontline reconnaissance and precision strike coordination. Bureau 1440 must execute numerous additional launches to achieve continuous orbital coverage across domestic and contested theaters.

U.S.-India Insight: India’s Trade Deals: Only a Starting Point to Progress

Csis | Richard M. Rossow

India has secured substantial nominal gains in bilateral goods trade following the implementation of economic agreements with Australia and the United Arab Emirates in 2022. Total annual goods trade between New Delhi and Canberra surged 76 percent to average $23 billion in fiscal years 2025 and 2026, while trade with Abu Dhabi climbed 81 percent to reach $100 billion annually over the same period.

Despite these impressive headline increases, neither partner has drastically altered India's aggregate trade basket, with Australia remaining stagnant at 2 percent and the United Arab Emirates shifting modestly from 7 to 8 percent. This marginal macro-level impact demonstrates that bilateral trade pacts fail to generate immediate structural shifts without concurrent domestic economic restructuring. Production Linked Incentive schemes and trade pacts must be underpinned by difficult structural reforms in land, labor, power, water, and judicial remediation to boost manufacturing competitiveness beyond its long-standing 13 to 15 percent share of gross domestic product.

OpenAI gives cyber defence tools to Ukraine

Bbc | Zoe Kleinman

OpenAI will share its Daybreak AI cyber defence system for free with the Ukraine government to protect civilian infrastructure, such as hospitals and power plants, from cyber-attacks. Under the agreement, Ukraine will receive access to OpenAI's GPT 5.6 Sol model as it counters nearly 6,000 cyber-attacks recorded in 2025 by CERT-UA.

Russian offensive cyber operations have been a key component of Moscow's aggression since 2014, prompting tech firms to supply defensive tools while gathering valuable conflict data. Analysts note that frontier AI models possess dual-use capabilities, serving defenders while simultaneously posing risks when exploited by malicious actors for reconnaissance and infrastructure infiltration. Meanwhile, tech executives gathered at the UN General Assembly amid growing warnings from industry leaders regarding the rapid proliferation of autonomous cyber threats.

The War Of Endurance: Russia, Ukraine, And The Struggle Behind The Front Lines

Eurasia Review | Philip Wasielewski

The Russo-Ukrainian War has evolved into a war of attrition where both sides target each other's societies and economies after front-line military operations reached a deadlock. Ukraine faces severe economic strain, a 20 percent drop in GDP, blocked Black Sea ports, and political instability over mobilization, corruption, and leadership disputes.

Despite these internal challenges, Kyiv is sustained by extensive Western financial aid and a rapidly expanding domestic defense industrial base. Meanwhile, Russia maintains maximalist war aims, absorbing heavy monthly casualties of 30,000 to 35,000 personnel while suffering under a sustained Ukrainian drone and missile campaign against its energy refineries and retail infrastructure. With neither side willing to capitulate and public polling showing that 61 percent of Ukrainians remain prepared to fight indefinitely, the conflict now depends on which nation's economy, military, or societal will collapses first.

Hunger on the Horizon: The New Black Sea Grain Crisis

Cfr | Samuel Henry Lazarus

The Russia-Ukraine war re-erupted along its southern maritime axis in July 2026, shattering a three-year détente in the Black Sea and shuttering ports on the eve of harvest season. Strikes have since kept the world’s most important grain chokepoint closed, disrupting the export of 17 percent of the world’s traded grain.

Parallel Russian and Ukrainian strikes targeting Black Sea ports are rapidly destroying and idling agricultural export capacity much faster than it can be restored or rerouted. This mutual blockade coincides with global agricultural shocks, including a super El Niño and reduced harvests in the United States, driving wheat prices to nearly $8 per bushel. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry recorded 124 Russian attacks on Greater Odesa ports in July alone, while Russian ports like Novorossiysk faced crippling drone and missile assaults from Ukraine. These military escalations threaten acute global food insecurity and widespread economic contraction.

Israel At The Crossroads: The October 27, 2026 Election And The Contest For The Post-Netanyahu Order – Analysis

Eurasiareview | Dr. Mohamed Chtatou

Israel will hold its first on-time Knesset election since 1988 on October 27, 2026, following the Gaza war, the Lebanon conflict, and the 2026 war with Iran. The vote acts as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu’s sixteen-year political dominance, accountability for the October 7 security failures, and the stability of a fragmented thirty-eight-party system.

September polls show Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading Likud, while the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs remain tightly contested around fifty-two to fifty-four seats each. Kingmakers such as Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and right-wing threshold risks will determine the outcome amid Haredi conscription disputes, far-right divisions, and a recent Haaretz report alleging a pre-attack UAE warning that Netanyahu’s office denies. Whoever wins will face a heavy national debt, a large defense budget, strained U.S.-Israel relations, and a stalled normalization track tied to a Palestinian horizon the incumbent rejects.

Netanyahu’s greatest illusion: That Israel’s security depends on him

Jerusalem Post | Yonatan Touval

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces an upcoming October 27 election with current polls leaving his governing bloc short of a parliamentary majority. For four decades, Netanyahu has built his political career around claims of indispensability, portraying himself as uniquely qualified to manage external threats like Iran while suppressing internal party rivals.

The October 7 massacre shattered his core security promise, yet successive security emergencies and ongoing regional conflict have been repurposed to postpone accountability and sustain his grip on power. While his campaigns continue to weaponize foreign hostility as a qualification for office, his international standing has narrowed amid an ICC arrest warrant and diplomatic walkouts at the United Nations. The central illusion of his tenure remains the unproven premise that Israel's national survival depends exclusively on his continued political leadership.

Technological Leapfrogging in the AI Age

Project Syndicate | Mark-Alexandre Doumba

African economies have increasingly relied on past success stories to assume that developing nations can bypass expensive infrastructure stages by adopting foreign technologies. This assumption requires rigorous scrutiny when applied directly to imported artificial intelligence systems. Policymakers face distinct structural hurdles in transforming countries from passive technology consumers into active producers.

The mobile-money revolution offers critical historical lessons for assessing whether similar shortcuts work in the current technological era. Developing nations confront deep infrastructural and capital deficits that complicate straightforward adoption models. Sustainable digital transformation demands domestic capacity building rather than mere reliance on external innovations. Regional leaders must evaluate these limitations carefully before committing national resources to imported foundational systems.

What Trump Said at the UN Was Important. What He Didn’t Was Important, Too.

Cfr | Esther Brimmer

U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the United Nations General Assembly for the fifth time, delivering a speech notable for its omissions regarding international cooperation and multilateral development institutions. The administration recently paid $725 million in overdue regular dues and $102 million for peacekeeping, avoiding a General Assembly vote loss, though $4.2

billion remains owed. Against this backdrop, the United States continues to prioritize peace and security frameworks while simultaneously dismissing development assistance, humanitarian response, and regulatory bodies like the World Health Organization and the International Maritime Organization. The Trump administration previously withdrew from the World Health Organization and the UN Human Rights Council while shuttering the U.S. Agency for International Development. Future engagement requires navigating deep Sino-American rivalries and financial strain while recognizing that a restructured United Nations framework remains essential for global governance.

The Guardian view on the future of the UN: more embattled, but more necessary, than ever

The Guardian

The United Nations faces unprecedented institutional strain as outgoing Secretary General António Guterres prepares to step down by 31 December amid rising global conflicts and a deadlocked security council. Donald Trump used his general assembly address to threaten Iran and dismiss international law regarding Venezuela, echoing broader boycotts by leaders including Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Narendra Modi.

Amid these diplomatic fractures and funding deficits, the organization remains a vital forum for smaller states to coordinate multilateral campaigns on climate and security reform. Potential successors like Rebeca Grynspan and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett face an uncertain leadership transition as major powers bide their time. The charter's founding mission to prevent global war endures not through flawless execution, but because the alternative remains far worse.

_Recent conflicts have exposed a growing vulnerability in America’s digital infrastructure—and US regulations could make defending it significantly harder._

National Interest | Henry Rogers

American data centers face escalating physical vulnerabilities as adversaries ingest the lessons of recent drone warfare operations in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf. In the summer of 2026, Ukrainian strikes against commercial giants like Wildberries and Iranian drone attacks disrupting Amazon Web Services facilities demonstrated how low-cost unmanned aerial systems can cripple critical economic nodes.

Because rapid digitization and artificial intelligence demands have driven operators to cluster these facilities in massive, interconnected campuses across Northern Virginia, Atlanta, Santa Clara, and Dallas, they represent concentrated targets vulnerable to coordinated kinetic disruption. Despite the availability of anti-drone sensors and jamming systems, federal regulations severely complicate protective measures. Under Federal Aviation Administration rules, the airspace above private data center campuses remains public domain, rendering it illegal for facility owners to shoot down or interfere with incoming aerial threats. Policymakers must reform these airspace barriers to allow civilian investment in site-defense infrastructure before overseas vulnerabilities replicate domestically.

Palantir, NATO and the Privatisation of Decision Infrastructure

Victoria Calotychos

NATO finalised the acquisition of the Maven Smart System for Allied Command Operations on 25 March 2025, deploying it across headquarters and exercise planning by 2026. This integration highlights a growing institutional challenge where external commercial platforms organise operational data and decision workflows, creating a dependency known as decision sovereignty.

While formal command authority remains with sovereign states, reliance on proprietary architectures for situational awareness and planning can lead to cumulative institutional lock-in. European firms contribute specialized capabilities like drones and simulations, yet these components operate within a foreign-controlled integration layer. As European nations accelerate defense spending amid compressed threat timelines, rapid procurement practices risk entrenching external control over critical digital infrastructure, decoupling formal ownership from practical governance.

The Nuclear AI Red Line: Prediction Is Not Permission

Eurasia Review | Burak Oktenli

Military artificial intelligence must maintain strict engineering boundaries that permanently separate machine prediction from human authorization in nuclear command systems. Although recent security dialogues between United States and Chinese experts at the Brookings Institution and Tsinghua University highlight the urgency of bilateral red lines, software anticipation of human behavior must never substitute for lawful command.

Experimental models such as Centaur illustrate that cognitive software can forecast human choices, while studies in Nature Human Behaviour and Anthropic's agentic-misalignment research demonstrate vulnerabilities to AI persuasion and deceptive behaviors. Consequently, four distinct functions—predicting, recommending, authenticating, and authorizing—must remain isolated to prevent automated systems from misinterpreting delays or forecasts as operational consent. Safeguards should enforce fresh, positive human acts of authorization and guarantee evidence independence across all reporting channels during high-stakes strategic exercises.

Saudi Arabia Faces the Era of Disequilibrium

Csis | Michael Ratney

Saudi Arabia confronts a volatile era of disequilibrium as ongoing regional conflicts and oil volatility threaten its ambitious economic and societal transformation. Driven by young leadership, the kingdom previously leveraged multipolarity and de-escalation to insulate itself from regional turmoil, but escalating wars involving Iran, the Houthis, and shifting U.S.

and Israeli policies have exposed critical vulnerabilities. Destructive attacks on strategic energy infrastructure in the Eastern Province and maritime choke points like the Bab al-Mandab Strait demonstrate the limits of traditional air defenses against asymmetric drone threats. Domestically, the government faces pressure to maintain economic momentum and job creation for a young demographic under 35 to prevent stagnation. To protect its national transformation, Riyadh continues to prioritize diplomatic de-escalation across volatile flashpoints while accelerating investments in renewable energy and alternative export routes designed to mitigate reliance on vulnerable transit corridors.

NATO’s Arctic Surveillance Claims

Geopoliticalmonitor | Meng Kit Tang

Norwegian defense minister Tore O. Sandvik asserted that NATO maintains continuous tracking of Russian submarines exiting the Kola Peninsula, contrasting with cautious statements from Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe spokesperson Col. Martin O’Donnell regarding deep-Atlantic tracking difficulties. This friction highlights the broader challenge of monitoring strategic chokepoints like the Bear Gap.

Allied forces intercepted a Russian Akula-class submarine and GUGI deep-sea submersibles near British infrastructure in April, though full details emerged months later via Reuters. Meanwhile, two undersea cables serving Norway remain severed without formal attribution since January 2022 and April 2024, complicating assessments of subsea vulnerability alongside rising Chinese commercial interest in the Northern Sea Route. Norway plans a new fiber-optic cable to Svalbard by 2028, testing seabed infrastructure security. NATO possesses proven detection capabilities but lacks public proof of continuous custody into the deep Atlantic.

Why the Attack Helicopter is still relevant

The Atlantic Passage

The Atlantic Passage, a Substack publication focusing on geopolitics and military history, returned a "Page not found" error on its hosting platform, failing to load any active posts or articles. This technical disruption prevents access to the site's planned editorial content regarding international conflicts and regional security. The platform's interface still displays navigation menus for thematic sections such as "Ukraine and the War," "Israel, the Middle East," "Conflict in Detail," and "The Big Picture."

These categories indicate the publication's intended focus on contemporary global flashpoints and strategic defense issues. Additionally, the page features standard Substack infrastructure, including subscription prompts, sign-in options, and links to the platform's notes and chat functions. Despite these structural elements, the central repository remains entirely empty, showing only a copyright date of 2026 and a notice that posts failed to load. No articles are currently accessible. Consequently, specific strategic analysis and author contributions remain unavailable on this URL.

Little Venice, Little Sparta: The UAE’s Statecraft Meets The War On Iran

Eurasia Review | Cinzia Bianco

The United Arab Emirates leverages its immense oil wealth, sovereign funds, and strategic position as "Little Venice" and "Little Sparta" to project global influence through commercial connectivity and muscular security. This model faced an existential stress test during the 2026 United States and Israel war with Iran, which shattered the assumption that commercial entanglement with Tehran under an American security umbrella would insulate the state.

Iranian retaliatory strikes targeted airports, ports, data centers, and energy infrastructure to punish the Emirati economy while Washington fought. Concurrently, an open strategic rupture hardened with Saudi Arabia over regional leadership, economic visions, and Red Sea footholds. Despite sustaining over 3,000 projectiles and an August 18 trade freeze, Abu Dhabi is accelerating a "fortified connectivity" framework—building spare supply routes, domestic defense manufacturing, and alternative terminals. Europe can leverage this post-war environment by offering regulatory predictability, protecting vital trade infrastructure, and establishing clear boundaries against militia-tied networks.