Bob Seely
We know that Donald Trump is erratic. But if he sticks to his course, and is prepared to accept the level of risk it implies, it could be that closing the Strait of Hormuz to Iran-linked maritime traffic will turn out to be a decisive blow that forces Tehran to bend to his will.
It seems clear that the US and Israel did not expect the Iranian regime to show the level of resilience it has. They also underestimated Iran’s ability to shut the Strait, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil goes, as well as much of its liquefied natural gas. While the Strait at its narrowest point is nearly 30 nautical miles wide, the navigable part consists of two two-mile-wide channels, separated by a buffer of the same length.
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The US is now blockading the Strait of Hormuz for vessels heading to or from Iranian ports. A dozen US warships are enforcing the blockade, supported by several dozen fighter jets and surveillance aircraft, according to US Central Command (Centcom).
The intended effect will be to squeeze Iran’s economy dry. Oil is the regime’s lifeblood. It has survived military destruction from the skies, but can it survive the inability to pay its soldiers?
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