As Myanmar collapses, it’s time for China to step up and be the hero

Responsible Statecraft  |  Doug Bandow

The Myanmar military junta led by General Min Aung Hlaing is facing a severe existential crisis as opposition forces seize control of approximately eighty percent of the country. This rapid territorial collapse threatens Beijing's critical natural gas and oil pipelines, forcing Chinese policymakers to reassess their ongoing diplomatic and military support for the brutal regime.

Decades of ethnic conflict in the borderlands escalated dramatically following the 2021 coup, which ended a brief period of democratic governance and triggered a nationwide civil war. To sustain its operations, the Tatmadaw relies heavily on its principal weapons supplier to conduct devastating airstrikes against civilian populations and rebel strongholds. However, this overt complicity has fueled intense anti-China sentiment among the Burmese population, jeopardizing Beijing's long-term regional influence. Consequently, Washington is urging Beijing to leverage its unique economic influence to initiate political reforms, which would ultimately secure Chinese energy corridors and mitigate a catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

Comment

Beijing's reliance on the Tatmadaw to secure the Kyaukphyu-Yunnan pipelines highlights a critical vulnerability in China's overland energy strategy. By tacitly permitting the Three Brotherhood Alliance to execute Operation 1027, Chinese intelligence attempted to balance its frustration over border-area cyber-scam syndicates against its long-term infrastructure investments. This backfired when the collapse of junta forces around Lashio exposed the limits of Beijing's leverage. The resulting security vacuum along the Yunnan frontier forces Chinese planners to choose between directly underwriting Min Aung Hlaing's depleted divisions or accepting a highly fragmented borderland governed by autonomous ethnic polities.

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