A new security alliance of Sunni states, termed the “Sunni axis,” is emerging, centered on the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) signed on September 17, 2025. This pact includes a collective defense clause echoing NATO’s Article 5 and is intended for expansion to include Turkey, Qatar, and potentially Egypt, forming a counterweight to Iran’s Shi’ite network.
While Pakistan’s Minister for Defense Production, Raza Hayat Harraj, stated on January 15, 2026, that a trilateral agreement with Turkey was “in the pipeline,” Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif later described their participation as a “possibility” on May 13. This shift suggests a cooling of enthusiasm, possibly due to Turkish-Saudi competition for Sunni leadership and lingering issues from the 2018 Jamal Khashoggi assassination, despite a 2022 rapprochement. The envisioned axis would combine significant financial, military, and nuclear capabilities, posing a perceived threat to Iran, India, Israel, and some Eastern Mediterranean states. However, the article concludes that the full expansion of this pact is “far from imminent,” and a cohesive “new Sunni axis simply does not yet exist.”
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