Ukrainian drone attacks have brought the war home to Russia, affecting its population and elites across federal subjects and eroding the Kremlin's projected sense of security. This campaign is driving down support for President Vladimir Putin, destroying infrastructure, and exacerbating tensions between Moscow and its regions, leading to growing problems in controlling federal subjects.
In the longer term, these attacks feed potentially dangerous fissiparous trends, increasing demands for decentralization, re-federalization, or even independence, which could provoke a repressive Kremlin response that might backfire. Two new surveys highlight these shifts: one tracking public attitudes (Gorizontal’naya Rossiya, May 27) and another observing elite responses (The Moscow Times, June 1). The latter, particularly significant, notes that "Varangians" (outsider officials) are increasingly "going native," defending local populations against Moscow, challenging Putin's control system. If these trends continue, Putin will face greater difficulty controlling the regions, and increased repression could lead to more severe problems.
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