At the U.S.–China summit in May 2016, Xi Jinping warned that mishandling the Taiwan issue could lead to a Thucydides Trap, a concept the author argues is misapplied in its original form to the current Taiwan Strait crisis. The situation involves China, the United States, and Taiwan, all caught in a cycle of believing military power can resolve conflict, leading to escalating tensions.
The U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity risks miscalculation, as China might perceive a lack of U.S. resolve, while Taiwan could overestimate support. U.S. strategic deterrence assumes superior power, but its defense industry may be unprepared for a prolonged conflict, exacerbated by domestic polarization. China views Taiwan's unification as a critical political goal, outweighing economic costs, and a symbol of ending the Chinese Civil War. Taiwan's divided politics and defense weaknesses, including fragile energy supply and inadequate reserve training, could encourage Chinese military action. Bureaucratic filtering in China may mislead leadership, potentially leading to miscalculation regarding international opposition and the true costs of a military campaign, risking regime stability. The trap is not merely misperception but structural rivalry, where all sides may accept substantial costs for their goals.
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