25 June 2026

The art of a bad deal

Engelsberg Ideas | Marc Polymeropoulos and Sam Worby

The recently announced Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran faces criticism for offering extensive economic relief to Iran, including restored oil sales rights, access to frozen funds, and a proposed $300 billion fund for reconstruction, with few clear concessions on its nuclear programme.

While the Trump administration defends the deal as preliminary, critics argue these significant incentives are offered without broader demands, such as curbing Iran's support for regional proxies or limiting its ballistic missile and drone programs. The agreement risks strengthening the IRGC’s hold on Iran's economy and government, and entirely overlooks the severe human rights abuses against the Iranian people, where 7,000 to more than 30,000 Iranians were killed, with Trump citing 32,000. Critics advocate tying economic incentives to human rights and political reforms to ensure benefits reach the population, not just a corrupt elite. Prospects for a final deal are weak, with doubts even within Trump’s cabinet, and potential for Trump to add demands concerning Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas support, and missile programs, to address Israeli objections. Iran has also reportedly continued to fire drones into the Strait of Hormuz.

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