26 June 2026

When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate: Equilibrium With Iran Is the Best America Can Do

Foreign Affairs | Hussein Banai

On June 17, Iran and the United States signed a deal formalizing a stalemate after 107 days of hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the American naval blockade. Washington waived sanctions on Iranian oil, began releasing frozen funds, and committed to a $300 billion reconstruction package, while deferring issues like Iran's nuclear and missile programs and proxy networks.

U.S. President Donald Trump failed to achieve his maximalist war goals, as Iran demonstrated resilience, replaced assassinated leaders, and used the Strait of Hormuz to coerce. Tehran views this as a victory, having survived bombardment and secured a bargaining chip. The article argues the U.S. must accept this stalemate, managing Iran's regional influence through containment strategies with allies and negotiating a nuclear deal that limits enrichment while providing sanctions relief. Washington must also leverage Israel to prevent renewed conflict.

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