Xi Jinping’s visit to Pyongyang this week signals a recalibration of Northeast Asia’s power balance, marking his first return since 2019. Xi leverages his political capital as North Korea gains influence from its advancing nuclear program and a nascent partnership with Moscow. For Kim Jong Un, this high-level attention from Beijing, North Korea’s principal economic lifeline, is crucial for projecting itself as a nuclear great power.
Xi aims to strengthen his credentials, reinforce Beijing’s global stabilizer image, and reassert China’s sway, warning Kim that expanding alignment with Moscow must not undermine China’s interests. Kim, now more confident, enjoys "dual patronage" from Russia and China, using both to extract concessions and reduce traditional reliance on Beijing. North Korea's expanding nuclear and missile capabilities, including a new uranium enrichment facility, further enhance its deterrence against US intervention and coercive leverage over Washington and Seoul. The United States and South Korea must acknowledge diplomacy's limits, accelerate alliance modernization with concrete steps like supporting South Korea’s nuclear-powered submarine development and deepening trilateral cooperation, secure critical supply chains, and strengthen extended deterrence through visible demonstrations of US capabilities.
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