NATO's annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, on July 7-8 reveals an emerging equilibrium where European leaders have adapted to U.S. President Donald Trump's disruptive foreign policy, fostering a partnership of convenience. This dynamic is significantly shaped by Ukraine, where Trump's initial push for a quick deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin failed.
Ukraine's drone technology edge, enabling strikes on Moscow and St. Petersburg, has given President Volodymyr Zelensky leverage for a cease-fire to freeze the front line. Europeans, having supported Kyiv, perceive their efforts to influence the U.S. as successful, with Trump now aligning with Ukraine, a shift praised by French President Emmanuel Macron. Europe also navigated Trump's Iran policy, offering logistical support and a platform for a memorandum of understanding on June 18, averting a major U.S.-Europe spat. Despite this, Europe remains wary. A potentially weakened Trump could become more unpredictable, risking erratic policymaking on European security and Ukraine. Long-term, the U.S. and Europe are diverging, with calls for "de-risking" from U.S. technology dependency, exemplified by Trump's decision to withhold advanced AI models Mythos and Fable. While Europe increases defense spending, full strategic autonomy remains a distant aspiration for the late 2030s-2040s due to reliance on U.S. strategic enablers.
No comments:
Post a Comment