India’s Expanding SSBN Force and What It Means for Pakistan

The Diplomat  |  Usman Haider, Abdul Moiz Khan

India’s expanding nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine fleet is altering the South Asian deterrence equation as the country advances its second-strike capabilities. With three operational vessels—INS Arihant, Arighaat, and Aridhaman—and a fourth, INS Arisudan, scheduled for commission in 2027, New Delhi is transitioning toward a more robust maritime nuclear posture.

This rapid naval expansion forces Indian strategic planners to choose between establishing a continuous at-sea deterrence posture or adopting a Soviet-style bastion strategy to protect these assets near domestic shores. Under a bastion framework, the Indian Navy would deploy its ballistic missile submarines within heavily defended maritime zones shielded by surface ships, attack submarines, and anti-submarine warfare platforms. Ultimately, the resolution of command-and-control structures between the navy and the Strategic Forces Command will shape how India deploys its upcoming S5-class submarines, directly impacting Pakistan's strategic calculations and regional stability.

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India's second-strike capability depends on completing the INS Varsha deep-water base on the eastern seaboard. This secure facility allows SSBNs to exploit the deep waters of the Bay of Bengal, avoiding shallow choke points. Integrating the 3,500-kilometre range K-4 ballistic missile allows these vessels to threaten distant targets from protected sanctuaries. In response, Pakistan's reliance on Babur-3 cruise missiles aboard diesel-electric Hangor-class submarines introduces destabilising command-and-control pressures during crises.

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